Browsed by
Category: General Election

Farage looks set to lose his BBC Election Question Time slot following BP’s candidate withdrawal move

Farage looks set to lose his BBC Election Question Time slot following BP’s candidate withdrawal move

Comments 0 Comment

It is being reported in the Times and other papers that Farage could lose some of his key TV debate slots following his move to pull BP candidates in Tory seats. Although Farage is not standing in the election and is not an MP he was allocated the same number of TV debate slots as Jo Swinson including the Question Time special when it was planned that he, Swinson, Corbyn and Johnson would be the line-up. Farage had “earned” his…

Read More Read More

The Brexit divide within LAB’s GE2017 supporter base

The Brexit divide within LAB’s GE2017 supporter base

Comments 0 Comment

LAB seeing significant seepage amongst its GE2107 leavers But holding up better amongst remainers though the LDs a worry What’s going to be key is being seen as the main option for tactical votes in key battlegrounds where the Tories are on the offensive, A problem is that a party that’s seen to be hemorrhaging support would find it harder to present itself as the tactical vote choice. My view is that so much depends on the final week because…

Read More Read More

After an eventful day a CON overall majority now a 60% chance on Betfair

After an eventful day a CON overall majority now a 60% chance on Betfair

Comments 0 Comment

But is it a bigger deal as is being made out? Today’s move by Farage sounds like a very important development but are we over stating it? Much of the coverage seems to be based on the widespread assumption that all the BP party vote will automatically go to the Tories. This is of course nonsense because a quite large slice of BP support comes from former LAB voters who would never go near the Tories. So the effect of…

Read More Read More

A Brexit Carol – how last time is shaping views of GE2019

A Brexit Carol – how last time is shaping views of GE2019

Comments 0 Comment

There is a ghost which is stalking this election in the media coverage, and it is the spirit of 2017. Everywhere one looks right leaning journalists are fretting and not quite believing the polls. The spirit of Election 2017 and a good ghost for Labour it is too – “Oh Jeremy Corbyn !”. Everywhere one looks the written media is observing this election as a closish horse race “You can’t rely on labour leavers to not revert to type” twitter…

Read More Read More

The spreads move even more sharply to the Tories

The spreads move even more sharply to the Tories

Comments 0 Comment

SpprtingIndex The mood on the spread betting markets this morning has been sharply to the Tories with both LAB and the LDs seeing their projected seats numbers drop markedly. This follows a weekend of good polling news for Johnson with LAB and the LDs seeing disappointing drops in their poll shares. The picture is all of Johnson heading for a comfortable working majority. On Friday evening, as I reported here, I made my first big spread bet of the elections…

Read More Read More

Betting on the Scottish battlegrounds

Betting on the Scottish battlegrounds

Comments 0 Comment

Goodness knows I try not to offend. Among the more controversial posts that I have ever put up, however, was one that concerned the SNP’s results at the last election. I noted that the SNP had lost more seats than the Conservatives and that they came within a whisker of losing many more. Their strategic position for the next election looked terrible. This did not go down well with the nationalist fraternity. Yet here we are in 2019, facing that…

Read More Read More

Why I’m now a seller of LAB seats on the Spreads.

Why I’m now a seller of LAB seats on the Spreads.

Comments 0 Comment

YouGov English regional polling has LAB in 3rd place in the Eastern region the South East and South West We haven’t yet looked at the series of English regional polls that YouGov carried out last month and has only just published them.  This is the first time I can recall this form of polling being carried out across England and the results help us to see where parties are doing well. The South West has always been a key battleground…

Read More Read More

We should be heading for a low turnout – who would that benefit?

We should be heading for a low turnout – who would that benefit?

Comments 0 Comment

Dark nights and dismal campaigning will not enthuse waverers There are four main factors in an election turnout: how important voters view the poll, how close they expect the result to be locally, how close they think it’ll be nationally, and what the prevailing local culture is towards voting. On that basis, you’d expect the general election to have a pretty decent turnout. Of the two national variables, there is genuinely a major issue at stake with Brexit, as well…

Read More Read More