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Category: General Election

Ashcroft mega-marginals poll has LAB doing better in the key battlegrounds than in country as a whole

Ashcroft mega-marginals poll has LAB doing better in the key battlegrounds than in country as a whole

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@LordAshcroft poll finds LAB doing better in key CON-LAB battlegrounds than country as whole. 8.5% swing as opposed to 6.5% one — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) September 15, 2013 CON lead in LD battlegrounds just 1% up since GE2015 @LordAshcroft poll One in 4 LAB supporters ready to switch to LDs in CON-LD battlegrounds when specific constituency question asked — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) September 15, 2013 The 12,500 sample poll was carried out by phone in early August at a time when…

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William Hill makes it 9-1 that GE2015 will lead to a second CON-LD coalition

William Hill makes it 9-1 that GE2015 will lead to a second CON-LD coalition

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At this price I’ve had a flutter – so should you With the party conference season opening today the bookies have got busy looking at existing markets and launching new ones. On LD seats we have:- William Hill open new market on LD seats at GE2015 4/1 0-20 seats 10/11 21-40 13/8 41 or more http://t.co/2F7WYoEVkx — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) September 14, 2013 Ladbrokes LD seats GE2015 odds 31-40 11/4 41-50 7/2 21-30 4/1 11-20 6/1 51-60 10/1 Over 71 12/1 0-10 14/1 61-70 20/1 — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB)…

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LAB has no worries about Tories returning to the fold because virtually no 2010 CON voters have switched

LAB has no worries about Tories returning to the fold because virtually no 2010 CON voters have switched

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Four party politics renders historical precedents obsolete So many theories are being put forward about the next general election based on what’s happened in the past before the era of four party politics. The rise of UKIP, I’d suggest, makes this redundant. There are no valid precedents. A common one is that voters will swing back to the main governing party from LAB because that’s what’s happened at previous elections. Only problem is that the move away from the Tories…

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If it really is “the economy stupid” then LAB has a big problem. But is it?

If it really is “the economy stupid” then LAB has a big problem. But is it?

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Chart from YouGov showing the trend its "Blame for Spnding Cuts" tracker. LAB finding hard to shake this off pic.twitter.com/4chGkNN1Pq — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) September 12, 2013 Chart from YouGov with trend on party best able to handle economy. LAB behind pic.twitter.com/YKqWHVwhG0 — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) September 12, 2013 But isn’t this being “priced in” to the voting figures? YouGov chart on what's happened in its polling since GE2010 pic.twitter.com/iVPRkDQYKS — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) September 12, 2013 That famous saying from…

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If EdM retains the 2010 LD>LAB switchers then it is job well done

If EdM retains the 2010 LD>LAB switchers then it is job well done

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EdM at TUC Only thing that matters electorally is that LAB keeps 2010 LDs who've switched My view: nothing's changed pic.twitter.com/8mAI3VMgS2 — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) September 10, 2013 It’s been a big day for Ed Miliband and I got the sense that many of the media reps went away from his TUC speech disappointed that the story they were expecting didn’t happen. For there was no booing or other obvious disent only a fairly lukewarm response from delegates. But that doesn’t matter…

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Will the other affiliated unions follow the GMB’s lead?

Will the other affiliated unions follow the GMB’s lead?

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And can Ed stop them? MIRROR: Ed's £9m in the red #tomorrowspaperstoday #bbcpapers pic.twitter.com/YwkjyXqqxK — Neil Henderson (@hendopolis) September 4, 2013 In the past week, whilst it has felt that there’s nothing happening in British politics other than Syria, yesterday saw a story that may have a crucial impact on the 2015 general election. The news was The 65-strong GMB executive announced on Wednesday that it would cut the number of its members affiliated to Labour from 420,000 to 50,000…

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Cameron loses the Syria Vote

Cameron loses the Syria Vote

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Now that Dave has lost the vote on Syria Cameron loses Syria war vote; 272 v 285. — Tom Newton Dunn (@tnewtondunn) August 29, 2013   Perhaps it is time to review these markets, this is not good for Dave, his authority has diminished somewhat. I suspect there is no chance of UK participation in any military intervention in Syria now.   Ladbrokes, year of the election, 2013, 25/1 and Dave to leave as PM in 2016 with Ladbrokes at…

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Ipsos-MORI party like-dislike ratings for UKIP raise doubts about the party’s future progress

Ipsos-MORI party like-dislike ratings for UKIP raise doubts about the party’s future progress

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How come that Farage’s party is now so disliked? One of the big problems with polling is that what tends to get reported is what fits the media narrative and other numbers can get ignored. Thus the big news from latest Ipsos-MORI “like/dislike” party and leader ratings was the big fall in Ed Miliband’s personal position which, of course, has been the big political story this summer. This has overshadowed other numbers from the firm about UKIP that might be…

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