So it’s back to where we were This morning’s YouGov poll for the Sun suggests that yesterday’s 4% CON deficit might have been a blip though all changes are within the margin of error. We also have the latest YouGov “Best PM” tracker which sees 34% saying Cameron and 23% saying EdM – both down one point. 95% of CON voters named Dave while 63% of LAB ones named Ed – findings that will continue to give hope to the…
A LAB majority now a 38.5% chance on Betfair – up 3% in a week Hung parliament at 39.1% still favourite pic.twitter.com/l0bwq66tJr — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) November 20, 2013 There’s been a move back to a LAB majority on the Betfair GE2015 outcome market. The price had moved in by about 3% in the past two days. A hung parliament remains the favourite. The chart above is from the Betfair exchange and covers a period of about 3 years. Unfortunately there…
But is it blip or start of a trend? After a dark November of polls for the Tories YouGov today gives them their best figures of the month. Like all such moves we have to be careful before jumping to conclusions. It might just be a blip or it could be a first indicator that the better economic news is beginning to resonate. Dave Cameron and his team will surely be hoping for the latter. Interestingly the proportion of 2010…
Remember the election that was a total disaster for the pollsters It’s being reported that David Cameron is using John Major’s successful and surprise victory at GE1992 as a model for his party in seventeen months time. Whether the planned campaigning “double whammy” type tax shock approach will work we’ll have to wait and see but the result from April 1992 will give the blue team hopes of a majority right until the early hours of May 8th 2015. For…
This is looking like the Romney betting ahead of WH2012 What’s been one of the intensive weeks of polling since the last election has barely moved the betting markets where Tory chances of securing a majority are rated at more than 23%. The LAB price continues to be in the mid-30s even though current polls translated into seats could see them with a majority of 80+. A hung parliament remains the punters’ favourite at just on a 40% chance. The…
Tonight's Opinium poll follows trend we've seen all week from ICM/Populus/TNS-BMRB/YouGov of LAB lead getting bigger — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) November 16, 2013 This post will be updated as more polling details come in
Ipsos-MORI also reports Greens up from 4 to 7 Charts from Ipsos-MORI showing today's poll which has LAB lead of 6% – up from level pegging last month pic.twitter.com/Wk5AflwS5C — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) November 15, 2013 LAB’s position with Populus best since end July Today's online poll from Populus sees LAB lead up Lab 40 (+1) Cons 31 (=) LD 11 (=) UKIP 10 (=) — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) November 15, 2013 All the leaders see their Ipsos-MORI ratings fall Table from Ipsos-MORI showing…
If you would like to purchase one of Marf’s prints or originals, please contact her here. Latest YouGov sees UKIP up at 13% again Today's YouGov poll for the Sun sees LAB lead down to 8% CON 31 LAB 39 LD 9 UKIP 13 — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) November 14, 2013 Farage’s party seems to poll within a range of 10-13% in the daily YouGov surveys and this morning’s figure is at the top of that range. On a bare uniform national swing this…