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Category: General Election

Tonight has done nothing to move the GE2019 betting

Tonight has done nothing to move the GE2019 betting

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This was all about reassuring your own party’s supporters I would guess that the vast majority of those who watched the QuestionTime Special had made up their minds about the election before the evening started. But it was an important programme and will almost certainly be the toughest questioning that any of the four will face before December 12th. My view is that this format is better than a debate and for those complaining about a biased audience then who…

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Starting at 7pm the BBC QuestionTime special which sees four party leaders being grilled by the audience

Starting at 7pm the BBC QuestionTime special which sees four party leaders being grilled by the audience

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The running order is: 7pm Corbyn 7.30pm Sturgeon 8pm Swinson 8.30pm Johnson It was at a similar event ahead of GE2017 when I thought TMay lost her majority. It was her “There’s no magic money tree” response to the nurse who had not had a pay rise for several years. I think tonight is going to be challenging for all four of them. My guess is that the second hour will get the biggest audience. Mike Smithson Follow @MSmithsonPB Tweet

New constituency poll for LAB-held Great Grimsby looks dire for the incumbent

New constituency poll for LAB-held Great Grimsby looks dire for the incumbent

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NEW: We conducted a telephone method constituency poll on behalf of @TheEconomist in Great Grimsby. Results have now been published and so under @BritPollingCncl rules we are releasing the results and tables. Get the data:https://t.co/MGMPa2op5U pic.twitter.com/zfbawhHIZL — Survation. (@Survation) November 21, 2019 Like all seat polls this has a very small sample (401) but the overall figures look promising for the Tories in one of its key northern targets and bad for LAB. Looking at the detailed data LAB is…

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Swinson’s Choice

Swinson’s Choice

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There is an ancient tradition in Britain of beating the bounds, where once a year, various members of the community walk the boundaries of their parish to fix its location and protect it from encroachment. In some cases, they would take boys and whip them, with the intent that such a traumatic event would be fixed in their memory. The general elections of 2015 and 2017 were certainly traumatic events for the Liberal Democrats, and they clearly still weigh heavily…

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Seduced and abandoned. The DUP’s chances in the general election

Seduced and abandoned. The DUP’s chances in the general election

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Even as a famous swordsman, Boris Johnson must be proud of the way that he has so comprehensively screwed the DUP. His Prime Ministership has not so much been a refutation of their strategy as a confutation of the DUP themselves.   The DUP have for many years campaigned as unflinching unionists.  Though they choose to forget the fact now, they campaigned against the Good Friday Agreement as a sell-out. They are not ideologically Conservatives: they are free-spending cultural conservatives of…

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On the betting markets the debate has changed nothing

On the betting markets the debate has changed nothing

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The betdata.io chart shows the last five days on the Betfair exchange and as can be seen there was almost no movement. The Tories are still rated by punters as having a 65% chance of securing a majority. This verdict is very much the same as what many leading commentators are saying but I wonder whether the instant view is correct. In the past the on the night judgements have been less than an accurate guide. One thing we’ve learned…

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