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Category: General Election

The impacts of the floods on the 2015 General Election

The impacts of the floods on the 2015 General Election

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Storm-hit coalition risks battering at the polls http://t.co/OCsHWRbbf1 — Times News (@TimesNewsdesk) February 17, 2014 On Sunday I speculated on whether the government’s response to the flooding would have an electoral effect. The Times have a piece today (££) which has analysed the constituencies that have suffered most with the recent extreme weather and there’s quite a few marginals affected.  Out of the Tories 40 most marginal seats, 15 have been affected by the recent extreme weather.  For the Lib Dems,…

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Lib Dem deposit losses at the General Election

Lib Dem deposit losses at the General Election

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The Wythenshawe & Sale East saw for the eight time in fifteen Great British by-elections since 2010 the Lib Dems lose their deposit. At the 2010 General Election, the Lib Dems were the only party out of the three established GB wide parties not to lose their deposit in any seat.  The above graph shows just how badly the Lib Dems have done, all bar one, their share of the vote has fallen, it was only in the unique circumstances behind…

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UKIP slumps 4 points with ComRes online while LAB extends lead to 9 with Opinium

UKIP slumps 4 points with ComRes online while LAB extends lead to 9 with Opinium

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Farage & UKIP down in ComRes favourability index “Please indicate whether you have a favourable or unfavourable view of each of the following political leaders and parties…” Percentage saying “favourable” (change since last month, or *change since June 2013). David Cameron 31% +4 Ed Miliband 22% +4 Nigel Farage 20% -2 Nick Clegg 13% (0) Labour Party 31% +5 Conservative Party 28% +3 Liberal Democrats 17% +3 UKIP 24% -3 48% tell ComRes that recent floods have made them more…

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The real challenge for UKIP now is getting their insurgency on track again

The real challenge for UKIP now is getting their insurgency on track again

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It’s tougher because LAB, at least, has worked out how to fight them We’ve heard a lot from Nigel Farage and others Kippers in the past day or so about the difficulty of fighting what they describe as the “ruthless” Labour machine. The very high proportion of votes cast that were done by post is one of the things that they’ve highlighted as though it was somehow unfair. It may or may not be but that is the current electoral…

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Latest EU referendum polling suggests that the outcome would be far from a foregone conclusion

Latest EU referendum polling suggests that the outcome would be far from a foregone conclusion

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Four CON voters in 10 currently say they’d vote to stay It is a long time since I’ve looked at EU referendum polling and today’s numbers from YouGov rather surprised me. The gap between EXIT and STAY is getting closer and the party splits are not quite as you’d imagine. Of course there is no referendum on the agenda at the moment and I doubt whether Ed Miliband will promise one in the fifteen months that remain until GE2015. If…

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The February ICM Guardian poll sees the LDs the big losers with the three others all moving forward

The February ICM Guardian poll sees the LDs the big losers with the three others all moving forward

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UKIP in third place for the Euro elections UKIP in third place behind Tories in new ICM poll for May's Euro elections pic.twitter.com/tSP71pBNiD — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) February 10, 2014 Mike Smithson 2004-2014: The view from OUTSIDE the Westminster bubble Follow @MSmithsonPB

A reminder: The Tories need lead of 7.3 percent before they start winning LAB seats and stop losing to them

A reminder: The Tories need lead of 7.3 percent before they start winning LAB seats and stop losing to them

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The gap needs to close and move sharply the other way Tory hopes will probably be boosted a bit by today’s YouGov for the Sunday Times which sees the party on 35% just 4 points behind Labour with both the LDs and UKIP on 10%. Maybe they can even start to think of a cross-over – something on which there is an active betting market. If that happens it will certainly be a key psychological moment and will give the…

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