Browsed by
Category: General Election

Finchley & Golders Green – the only constituency where there’ve been two polls

Finchley & Golders Green – the only constituency where there’ve been two polls

Comments 0 Comment

The Chief Rabbi’s comments on anti-semitism put the focus once again on what’s troubled Corbyn’s Labour Party for nearly 2 years – the way it has handled anti-semitism within the movement. One of the high-profile victims of some serious online antisemitism was the former Liverpool Wavertree MP, Luciana Berger who has now switched to the Lib Dems and will be fighting the the Finchley and Golders Green seat on December 12th. She left her original party after facing a torrent…

Read More Read More

Reporting from the front Lyme

Reporting from the front Lyme

Comments 0 Comment

From the PBer who could be an MP in 17 days time As regular readers will know, I am the Conservative candidate for Newcastle-under-Lyme, a seat that has been Labour for a century and has not elected a Conservative since 1880. However I am now facing a majority of just 30, in a seat that voted around 63% to Leave. That’s the official Borough figure – Professor Chris Hanretty has the constituency a touch lower at 61.6% but observers who…

Read More Read More

Swinson opens up a 28 point ratings gap over Johnson in six London remain seats

Swinson opens up a 28 point ratings gap over Johnson in six London remain seats

Comments 0 Comment

In deepest Remainia the polling picture is very different For the last couple of Sundays the former YouGov president, Peter Kellner, has published a total of six constituency polls as part of an effort to examine potential tactical voting possibilities in seats which voted Remain at the referendum. So far all of them have been in London but next weekend we are promised a selection from elsewhere in England. The voting figures in all six seats have the Tories in…

Read More Read More

Majority opinion. Looking at the Conservatives’ chances from a different perspective

Majority opinion. Looking at the Conservatives’ chances from a different perspective

Comments 0 Comment

Average of 8 latest polls, taken 14-22 Nov (incl today's BMG, Opinium, Panelbase, YouGov):Con 43%Lab 29%Lib Dem 15%Brexit Party 4%Green 3% Projected Con majority 94 (All polls take account of Brexit Party standing down; Scotland projected from Panelbase & YouGov, 9-25 Oct) — John Rentoul (@JohnRentoul) November 23, 2019 But the range is still huge, from Con majority of 0 on a 10-point lead (Panelbase) to one of 210 on a 19-point lead (Opinium) — John Rentoul (@JohnRentoul) November 23,…

Read More Read More

The polling that’s persuaded me that turnout will be greater than 66.4%

The polling that’s persuaded me that turnout will be greater than 66.4%

Comments 0 Comment

My 66.4% or more turnout spread bet When it became clear that we were going to have a December general election the general view was this would inevitably lead to a lower turnout than the 68.8% of GE2017. The argument was that at this time of year the days are getting very short and and it will be harder to both campaign and to persuade voters to turn out on. My view is that what drives turnout is how important…

Read More Read More

If this polling turns out to be accurate then it is great news for the SNP and Boris Johnson

If this polling turns out to be accurate then it is great news for the SNP and Boris Johnson

Comments 0 Comment

A poll graphic with a range of exciting facial expressions on our party leaders? Ok, seeing as it’s you pic.twitter.com/ASI9ckwxXn — Jason Allardyce (@Jason_Allardyce) November 24, 2019 I have to admit I wasn’t expecting to see this, after all it was heavily trailed earlier on this year, that the Johnson/Cummings strategy to sacrifice Scottish and Remain inclined seats to win a plethora of Labour held Leave inclined seats. As the country’s greatest ever psephologist, Professor Sir John Curtice, writes Just…

Read More Read More

The first sign that Boris Johnson is going to repeat Theresa May’s dire campaign performance at GE2017?

The first sign that Boris Johnson is going to repeat Theresa May’s dire campaign performance at GE2017?

Comments 0 Comment

If these @DeltapollUK ratings are replicated with @IpsosMORI then Boris Johnson is about to repeat Theresa May's cratering of her ratings at GE2017. pic.twitter.com/fJQxWO6Hkx — TSE (@TSEofPB) November 23, 2019 Corbyn reducing the PM’s net approval ratings lead by 23 points in a week is a worrying sign for Boris Johnson. Longstanding readers of PB will know that leadership ratings are a much better predictor of electoral outcomes than headline voting intention figures, they foretold the unexpected Conservative majorities of…

Read More Read More

Let’s talk landslides

Let’s talk landslides

Comments 0 Comment

Boris might well be on for a 100+ majority Even the balloons looked forlorn and listless; remnants of a celebration party no-one really expected to need and now mockingly reminding the few left of those misplaced hopes, as they swayed aimlessly in unseen aerial eddies. The signs had been there for weeks of course – months, even – but for one reason or another, they’d continuously been ignored. The local government by-elections, the Westminster by-elections, the leader ratings, the constituency…

Read More Read More