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Category: General Election

English votes for English laws (EV4EL) – the question is whether Cameron is able to deliver

English votes for English laws (EV4EL) – the question is whether Cameron is able to deliver

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Election pledges won’t count after the Lisbon Treaty experience In 1787, a group of Americans came together and wrote a whole new constitution for their country from scratch in the space of four hot and humid months.  Two and a quarter centuries later, it’s still going strong.  True, they didn’t have the complicating factors of histories and traditions or established institutions that the UK has now but they did have to contend with other barriers to success, perhaps at least…

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Survation finds that the Tories would be 3% closer without Scotland

Survation finds that the Tories would be 3% closer without Scotland

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The shape of polling to come post referendum? Interesting new Survation poll published overnight by Survation with new Westminster numbers showing for the first time two sets of numbers – both with Scotland and without. The outcome is not surprising but it is good to measure it. Given that generally Survation tends to show higher UKIP figures than most other firms and lower CON ones then the one percent CON deficit should be encouraging. But inevitably the whole political environment…

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David Herdson says “LAB most votes – CON most seats” is a good bet at 66-1

David Herdson says “LAB most votes – CON most seats” is a good bet at 66-1

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Why the “impossible” could happen Labour has won most votes at a general election before and come out behind on seats.  It happened in 1951, when Attlee’s Labour polled over 13.9m votes: around a quarter of a million more than Churchill’s Conservatives, who nonetheless formed a majority government (and for that matter, more than Labour has ever polled in any other election).  A lot has changed since then and the conventional wisdom is that such an outcome is no longer…

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…meanwhile in the race to win GE2015 now less than seven months away….

…meanwhile in the race to win GE2015 now less than seven months away….

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Sept Ipsos-MORI has CON 1% lead amongst those certain to vote but 3% behind amongst all giving an opinion pic.twitter.com/JlQ59xwTNH — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) September 12, 2014 LAB lead up with today's Populus online poll Lab 37 (+1), Con 33 (-1), LD 9 (=), UKIP 13 (+1) — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) September 12, 2014 LAB set to win more GE2015 seats on 2.6% fewer votes than CON according to latest @StephenDFisher projection. pic.twitter.com/mwe7mXJY98 — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) September 12, 2014

The devastating detail from the Survation Clacton by-election poll

The devastating detail from the Survation Clacton by-election poll

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The devastating detail from the @Survation -MoS Clacton poll. Where the UKIP is coming from. http://t.co/vnARzqe6NN pic.twitter.com/y8OASfgEud — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) August 31, 2014 The constituency, though, is a one-off In all the time I have been following and analysing polls there has never been anything as sensational as the Survation Clacton poll for the Mail on Sunday published overnight. The figures are extraordinary and point to an overwhelming victory for Douglas Carswell in his new colours. The thing we…

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David Herdson on what Carswell’s defection could mean for 2015

David Herdson on what Carswell’s defection could mean for 2015

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A by-election victory could secure a TV debate place for Farage The defection of one MP or another towards the end of a parliament is nothing particularly unusual.  The decision of one to resign and re-contest his or her seat is.  Were it not for the vote of even greater significance taking place in Scotland next month, the Clacton by-election could have been the seminal political moment of the parliament.  Depending on the two results, it still might be. A…

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Carswell seems to have had an impact on the GE2015 betting markets but not Rotherham

Carswell seems to have had an impact on the GE2015 betting markets but not Rotherham

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GE2015 betting: LAB majority chances on Betfair move up 3 to nearly 35% following the Carswell defection to UKIP pic.twitter.com/mjfWZx9rwv — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) August 29, 2014 Betfair GE2015 majority betting: CON chances drop by 3% following Carswell move pic.twitter.com/P0JpwViLgH — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) August 29, 2014 Maybe the weekend polls will change that?

Away from the IndyRef – today’s Populus poll sees UKIP up 4% to a record high for the firm

Away from the IndyRef – today’s Populus poll sees UKIP up 4% to a record high for the firm

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This follows an increase in the UKIP share in the ComRes online poll for IoS/S Mirror – published at the weekend and the last YouGov poll have Farage’s party up from its average for the month of about 12% to 14%. We need to see more polls, of course, but the theory was that UKIP would fade after the May Euros and headed for GE2015. Well these numbers suggest that that is not happening. Mike Smithson 2004-2014: The view from…

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