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Latest churn figures from main parties to Farage’s One of the great things about the Lord Ashcroft marginals polling is the sheer scale of it and the size of the overall samples. He tends to operate with samples of 1,000 meaning that the latest batch involved talking on the phone to a total of 11,002 people which is the equivalent to almost a year’s worth of ICM or Ipsos-MORI polls. The benefit is that the aggregate data from all the…

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YouGov polling for the @TheEconomist on perceptions of UKIP. http://t.co/htbjsweQWI pic.twitter.com/stPsFNlqjj — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) October 17, 2014 Last month Ipsos-MORI had them the most disliked & least liked party Could we be seeing the basis for anti-purple tactical voting? In a week that has been dominated by positive GE15 voting numbers for YouGov there’s some other data from firm for the Economist, see top panel, that might make uncomfortable reading. The way the party is perceived by a representative sample…

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How today's record UKIP share of 18% from YouGov compares with monthly averages from firm during 2014. pic.twitter.com/oIiKJPLco1 — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) October 15, 2014 The reverberations from Clacton continue After the strong UKIP performances in the most recent Survation, Ashcrfot and ICM polls YouGov is reporting this morning that the party is on 18% – the highest ever figure from the firm. Survation at the weekend had the party on 25% while ICM on Monday saw UKIP move up…

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The gaps between the 2010 LDs and UKIP voters are enormous In its latest phone poll for the Guardian ICM takes a novel new approach to testing the salience of specific issues and the impact on voting. As can be seen in the chart above the sample was asked to state the single most important issue that would influence their vote. For me the big surprise is that immigration is pipped for top place by the NHS and that the…

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The day has seen three new GE15 polls all of them completed after UKIP success in the by-elections on Thursday. Populus online which came out this morning showed no change for the party but the two phone polls, ICM and Ashcroft, reported increases. ICM had Farage’s party moving up 5% to 14% while Ashcroft recorded 19% for the purples – up 2 and equalling the highest ever share that his polling has found. So less than two weeks after the…

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Confused? So is everyone it appears Headline points from @LordAshcroft poll for Sun on Sunday http://t.co/hSHlMNLqaH pic.twitter.com/5GlgwI3ogd — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) October 12, 2014 The question is how much of a liability is the LAB leader Last night more polls were published than on any day since GE10. We had surveys of all sorts from YouGov, ICM, Opinium, Survation and Lord Ashcroft and it is hard to draw any conclusions. In the voting polls LAB was ahead in all but Survation…

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