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Category: General Election

If the LDs experience is anything to go by then major party status for UKIP is bad news for the blues

If the LDs experience is anything to go by then major party status for UKIP is bad news for the blues

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Farage and Carswell pic.twitter.com/LN9BCE7d18 — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) January 9, 2015 The chances of the purples fading must now be lower One of the features of general elections in recent times is that the Lib Dems always seem to get a boost during the campaign. Thus a 4-5% increase in their final share at the election compared with pre-formal campaign polls has almost been the norm. What has driven this is the extra attention they get from the broadcast media…

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Legalising fox-hunting: A vote winner for the Tories or a vote loser?

Legalising fox-hunting: A vote winner for the Tories or a vote loser?

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Lifting the ban on fox-hunting – how supporters of the main parties divide pic.twitter.com/YTq1r57Eff — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) January 9, 2015 YouGov finds that the Right-Left divide over fox-hunting continues With the Tories reported to planning legalise fox-hunting if they are returned with a majority YouGov has had a look at the issue and finds support for current ban, But as the chart shows there’s a sharp right-left split on the issue with Tory voters opposing the ban the LAB…

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The PB December Polling average: the Left rampant

The PB December Polling average: the Left rampant

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Lab, LD and Green all up; Con and UKIP down Christmas shopping, parties and other seasonal distractions may be nothing but credit card bills now but in and amongst all that fun – forced or genuine – a rather interesting swing was taking place in the polls. Before getting on to that, let’s deal with a potential objection. December, like August, is a non-political month and as such the argument goes that the public isn’t paying much attention to politics…

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Ofcom’s decision not to classify the Greens as a “major party” has wider consequences than just the debates

Ofcom’s decision not to classify the Greens as a “major party” has wider consequences than just the debates

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Guardian's @patrickwintour on Ofcom decision not to classify Greens as "major party" for GE15 http://t.co/BYOYE7Uu57 pic.twitter.com/0HRwgv9cnX — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) January 8, 2015 This morning’s Ofcom ruling on what should be the “major parties” for the general election will impact on the overall amount of TV and radio coverage the parties get during the offical “short” election campaign which starts at the beginning of April. UKIP, following its Euro2014 triumph and now having 2 MPs, always look set to be…

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A week into the new year and the betting markets still very uncertain about what’s going to happen

A week into the new year and the betting markets still very uncertain about what’s going to happen

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First week's trading on SportingIndex http://t.co/8brmIVQzQn commons seats almost no change on 2014. LAB by 5 MPs pic.twitter.com/HDm1jKrzTc — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) January 8, 2015 Only change a slight uptick for SNP Yesterday evening I was at the BBC offices next to parliament to record a discussion with Ipsos-MORI boss, Ben Page, about the coming election and what’s going to happen. This is due to go out on Radio 4’s “The Week in Westminster” programme at 11am on Saturday morning….

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If UKIP is a bit on the wane then maybe there are some good bets out there

If UKIP is a bit on the wane then maybe there are some good bets out there

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A look at the seats where the purples are favourite Great Yarmouth From @LordAshcroft Constituency polling. http://t.co/sY9l3rAerf Great Yarmouth where UKIP is 5/4 favourite to win pic.twitter.com/6PKHWbEhbb — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) January 7, 2015 Thanet South Thanet South polling from @LordAshcroft where UKIP's Nigel Farage is odds-on favourite to win pic.twitter.com/FBmz8yhp7Y — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) January 7, 2015 Thurrock @LordAshcroft polling of the 3 way marginal of Thurrock where UKIP 5/6 betting favourite pic.twitter.com/xRAsKWSAcV — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) January 7, 2015…

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General Election year polling opens with LAB having small leads and a big divide over the Greens

General Election year polling opens with LAB having small leads and a big divide over the Greens

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The first two polls of 2015 pic.twitter.com/fzK2c1eIFp — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) January 6, 2015 The first two pollsters to report at start of 2010 had CON leads of 9% & 10%. At GE10 CON vote lead was 7.3% — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) January 6, 2015 YouGov now follow Survation & ComRes in prompting for UKIP So the the general election year polling begins with LAB on small leads from the online pollsters which poll most often, Populus and YouGov. Not…

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