— Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) January 8, 2015
Only change a slight uptick for SNP
Yesterday evening I was at the BBC offices next to parliament to record a discussion with Ipsos-MORI boss, Ben Page, about the coming election and what’s going to happen. This is due to go out on Radio 4’s “The Week in Westminster” programme at 11am on Saturday morning.
The overwhelming theme was one of uncertainty. How many LAB seats are going to fall to the SNP in Scotland?, what’ll be the impact of the growing new forces the Greens and UKIP and what did we think would happen if the outcome was inconclusive?
Ben made a point which has been seen in his polling – Ed has far worse ratings than Dave but Labour is liked by more and disliked by fewer voters than the Tories. Which will be decisive?
The presenter, Sue Cameron, did put us on the spot about the likely outcome at the end to which we both responded.
This huge uncertainty is showing in the betting. As seen by the latest commons seats spreads above LAB is seen to just have the edge but not by very much.