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Two Mondays ago the Populus and the Ashcroft had an 11 point gap over the LAB lead

Two Mondays ago the Populus and the Ashcroft had an 11 point gap over the LAB lead

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Revised @LordAshcroft poll Tweet. The first survey from him this year that doesn't have LAB behind. pic.twitter.com/Cu8pgNGtxL — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) January 26, 2015 Today there’s 1 point gap Mondays have become the biggest polling day of the week witch at least three new surveys being reported. In the morning we get Populus online, the afternoon Lord Ashcroft and the normal YouGov in the evening. Today we’ve got a new London YouGov survey for the Evening Standard (see below). But…

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Interesting new leaders’ betting market – but where’s the value?

Interesting new leaders’ betting market – but where’s the value?

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General Election masks – just what you've always wanted! http://t.co/uMzNJJAAoh pic.twitter.com/UYc3n5e4vt — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) January 26, 2015 Which of ED/Nick/Dave/Nige/Alex will do worst in their seats? Which leader'll do worst in seat at GE15 – AS/DC/EdM/NC/NF ? Betfair Sportsbook http://t.co/kjmGcRoaeb pic.twitter.com/jbsShjOBnp — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) January 26, 2015 This clearly is a competition between Nick Clegg and Nigel Farage and my inclination would be the latter. Thanet South looks as though it will be a tighter contest than Sheffield Hallam….

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With Scotland looking so difficult Labour’s big hope is the English battleground

With Scotland looking so difficult Labour’s big hope is the English battleground

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Mapping where the main action will be If the two main parties are level-pegging in England then that represents a swing of 5.7% on the last general election so, all the above should be potential LAB gains on current England only polling data. In almost all of the seats in the chart there has been Lord Ashcroft single constituency polling and the latest batch, just before Christmas, of those right at the top of the chart had more CON holds…

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The 22 LAB targets/seats that political scientist, Rob Ford, says could be put at risk by the Green surge

The 22 LAB targets/seats that political scientist, Rob Ford, says could be put at risk by the Green surge

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The 22 key seats where Man Uni's Rob Ford says the Greens could threaten LAB Observer http://t.co/3bZwdemtoy pic.twitter.com/Y9O2FrXZ4v — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) January 24, 2015 Now Miliband might have to secure GREEN-RED tactical voting The leading political scientist, Rob Ford of Manchester University, has an analysis in the Observer this morning about the dangers of the current Green party surge to Labour’s GE15 chances. The 22 seats, some of them currently LAB held some are targets, are shown above and…

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Latest polls bring just a little bit of relief for LAB but it’s going to be a struggle to win most seats

Latest polls bring just a little bit of relief for LAB but it’s going to be a struggle to win most seats

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LAB moves to 4% lead with Populus online LAB 36= CON 32-3 LD 9+1 UKIP 13= GRN 6+2 — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) January 23, 2015 Overnight LAB retained YouGov Sun poll lead LAB 33% CON 31% UKIP 17% GRNS 8% LD 7% — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) January 23, 2015 But still this battle is mighty tight At the end of a week that has seen the worst LAB polling shares since GE10 the latest two polls from Populus and YouGov will come as something of a relief. As…

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Ipsos-MORI phone poll has SNP with 28% lead in Scotland

Ipsos-MORI phone poll has SNP with 28% lead in Scotland

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How STV is reporting its latest @IpsosMORI Scotland poll. http://t.co/yRmR2tpR5k pic.twitter.com/AlUAwPt6bs — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) January 21, 2015 STV Ipsos-MORI phone poll in Scotland has SNP lead of 28% SNP 52% LAB 24% CON 12% LD 4% GRN 4% Murphy would lose — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) January 21, 2015 So three Scottish polls in four days SNP leads ranging from 10% to 28% – that is some difference — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) January 21, 2015 Are we seeing “shy unionists” like shy IndyRef NO voters? Would, I…

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Delaying till after the election the Chilcot report on Iraq is good news for Labour

Delaying till after the election the Chilcot report on Iraq is good news for Labour

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Marf on Clegg's assertion that Chilcot report on Iraq war being "sexed-down" pic.twitter.com/A6OuNgAACw — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) January 21, 2015 Reminding voters of the conflict not good for the red team At PMQs today EdM opened by asserting that his party wants to Chilcot Inquire report to be published as soon as possible. Maybe but the he last thing, surely, that Labour wants in the run-up to May 7th is something to remind voters of the Iraq War although Ed…

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So far at least the post-IndyRef SNP surge has barely been seen in Scottish local by-elections

So far at least the post-IndyRef SNP surge has barely been seen in Scottish local by-elections

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SNP poll surge not being seen in post IndyRef Scottish local by-elections. Chart from Rob Hayward – election analyst pic.twitter.com/H6u35Btkfi — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) January 19, 2015 Just compare that with the UKIP experience in England Yesterday I attended the annual media briefing by the respected elections analyst and former Conservative MP Robert Hayward. It was a packed and thought provoking session which will be reflected in the media in the coming weeks. There are a number of slides that…

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