— Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) January 24, 2015
Now Miliband might have to secure GREEN-RED tactical voting
The leading political scientist, Rob Ford of Manchester University, has an analysis in the Observer this morning about the dangers of the current Green party surge to Labour’s GE15 chances.
The 22 seats, some of them currently LAB held some are targets, are shown above and where on the basis of detailed analysis Ford thinks that Labour might have problems. He writes:-
“..Labour have performed strongly in such seats in local elections and constituency polling by Lord Ashcroft, and until recently considered many to be very strong pick-up opportunities. The rise of the Greens puts them back at risk, as the disaffected and often idealistic voters Labour had won back may now see the Greens as a more potent outlet for their disaffection than Labour, as well as a closer fit with their social values. Labour often requires a large swing to overcome well entrenched and well organised Lib Dem incumbents, so even a relatively modest leakage to the Greens could make life difficult…”
My main observation is that we shouldn’t at any stage in the next 101 days underestimate the effectiveness of the big party machines in the key marginals. In most key seats they’ve got the databases and experienced foot-soldiers to help curb seepage of support. The same applies to the Tories where seepage to UKIP could give seats to LAB.
But there’s little doubt that if the Greens retain a large amount of current support then it will have an impact and LAB will struggle to make the gains that appear to be possible.