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Category: General Election

If you live in the marginals expect US style political attack ads appearing in your youtube feed

If you live in the marginals expect US style political attack ads appearing in your youtube feed

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Above is one of the most notorious US political attack ads.   Buzzfeed are reporting that [The] Tories Bring US-Style Political Attack Adverts To The UK In Time For The Election. Paid-for political advertising on TV and radio has always been banned in the UK. But there’s no such restriction on using YouTube, and BuzzFeed News understands the Conservatives are already spending the money. Whilst many have doubts the impact of the internet and social media on a general election campaign,…

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Why’s the Westminster bubble ignoring the Tory near collapse in England?

Why’s the Westminster bubble ignoring the Tory near collapse in England?

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In 2010 CON 11.4% ahead: Latest Opinium has them 2% behind That’s a massive gap to close in a part of the UK where 96% of the LAB-CON battlegrounds are. To work out swing you look the change in party figures from the last election an divide by 2. So here LAB is up 6.9% with Opinium in England and the Tories down 6.5%. So that makes a swing of 6.7% On UNS this would give LAB enough seats to…

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Good news from William Hill about the great PB “Composition of next Government” bets from July 2012

Good news from William Hill about the great PB “Composition of next Government” bets from July 2012

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Those people who bet on "other" with Hills on this market in July 2012 must now be looking forward to a big payout. pic.twitter.com/N1DQaTFref — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) February 2, 2015 In view of the way politics have developed in the past six months those who bet on “other” in the William Hill “Composition of Net Government” market in July 2012 have started to think that there’s a nice pay-out to come in May. I’ve got several bets on at…

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Three months to go and focus moves to what should be good for LAB – the NHS

Three months to go and focus moves to what should be good for LAB – the NHS

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Ipsos-MORI Issues Index is unique in that those sampled are asked to name the issues without prompting. pic.twitter.com/eVkyN7LlTN — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) February 6, 2015 Ipsos-MORI Issues Index: Where the huge jump in concern about the NHS has come from. pic.twitter.com/RDxV18G0Jl — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) February 6, 2015 Ipsos-MORI Issus Index. How concern about NHS breaks down amongst different groups pic.twitter.com/ir0PP1pAsu — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) February 6, 2015 This polling has been carried out in exactly the same way for…

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How MPs with bigger majorities are more likely to be non-locals and much less likely to be women

How MPs with bigger majorities are more likely to be non-locals and much less likely to be women

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Thanks to Ralph Scott (‏@ralphascott) of Demos for this interesting study of MPs ahead of the election. I suppose one reason is that in the more marginal seats there are likely to be more selection contests because there’s a much better chance that they will change hands at a general election. It is interesting that the one Tory cabinet minister who is most vulnerable in May is Nicky Morgan who sits for the LAB-CON battleground of Loughborough. Mike Smithson For…

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The January PB Poll Average – closing in on a double crossover?

The January PB Poll Average – closing in on a double crossover?

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The Tories and Greens are the month’s winners In the four and a half years since the general election, there’ve been four crossovers in the polls, blips excluded. Labour took the lead from the Conservatives in the autumn of 2010, the Tories briefly regained it following the EU Treaty veto at the end of 2011 before Labour recaptured the pole position in February 2012 which they’ve held since. A year later, UKIP overtook the Lib Dems for third and have…

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The big difference between the UNITE and Lord Ascroft Hallam polls was the latter’s two stage voting question

The big difference between the UNITE and Lord Ascroft Hallam polls was the latter’s two stage voting question

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Response to Ashcroft first question Similar to Survation. The @LordAshcroft Sheffield Hallam poll before the 2nd seat specific question was put. pic.twitter.com/dXFjtA7d4l — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) February 5, 2015 Second stage when it’s candidates in specific seats The @LordAshcroft Hallam poll after the constituency specific question was put. LD ahead but not by much pic.twitter.com/GxfQ3SMnSO — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) February 5, 2015 The overnight UNITE/Survation Sheffield poll which had LAB with a 9% lead highlights the very different approaches of…

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LAB most seats slips to just a 40% chance making it the best value GE2015 bet

LAB most seats slips to just a 40% chance making it the best value GE2015 bet

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Punters on Betfair exchange pile on CON most seats and LAB slips to a 40% chance pic.twitter.com/cQruKHRokl — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) February 5, 2015 The fundamentals stay with the red team After yesterday’s Lord Ashcroft Scottish polling and last night’s YouGov recording a CON lead the money on the general election betting markets has moved to the Tories. The overall outcome is, of course, still for a hung parliament but CON most seats has now become a firmer favourite on…

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