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The sure guide to knowing if you live in a marginal – how much is coming through your letterbox

The sure guide to knowing if you live in a marginal – how much is coming through your letterbox

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One of 4 GE15 leaflets from the past 5 days – and there are 11 weeks to go. Oh the joy of living in a marginal! pic.twitter.com/ShfdYJgLau — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) February 17, 2015 GE2010 Ipsos-MORI. Just 27% of those living in marginals realised that their seat was key battleground pic.twitter.com/YWqn0OUPiJ — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) February 17, 2015 The above polling by Ipsos at GE10 says a lot. By the final week just over a quarter of those sampled in…

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After six weeks of CON leads or them level-pegging today Lord Ashcroft poll has LAB 1% ahead

After six weeks of CON leads or them level-pegging today Lord Ashcroft poll has LAB 1% ahead

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Ashcroft National Poll, 13-15 Feb: CON 30%, LAB 31%, LDEM 9%, UKIP 16%, GRN 8%. Full details on @ConHome, 4pm. — Lord Ashcroft (@LordAshcroft) February 16, 2015 Now LAB go into lead for 1st time this year in this week's @LordAshcroft national phone poll pic.twitter.com/5i5Oh6Q6or — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) February 16, 2015 @LordAshroft national poll. Some good +ve numbers for LAB here an bad ones for Farage/UKIP pic.twitter.com/kpfuLCcXhB — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) February 16, 2015 So what do we make…

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UPDATED: Marf on the Copenhagen shootings and the day’s 1st 2 polls – ICM CON 4% ahead

UPDATED: Marf on the Copenhagen shootings and the day’s 1st 2 polls – ICM CON 4% ahead

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Marf on the Copenhagen shootings pic.twitter.com/gUxVyMOQAU — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) February 16, 2015 CON jump 6% in most sensational poll of 2015 Breakdown of ICM Guardian poll pic.twitter.com/sVyGcVPT0y — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) February 16, 2015 Latest Populus VI: Lab 33 (-1), Con 31 (-), LD 10 (+1), UKIP 15 (+1), Others 11 (-1). Tables here: http://t.co/7TPAFeVZw3 — Populus (@PopulusPolls) February 16, 2015 NHS remains most important issue according to ICM/Guardian poll. Just 4% said Europe. . pic.twitter.com/zSpz8Mvhkx — Mike Smithson…

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Big question in blue-yellow battles is how much you can trust the Ashcroft 2 stage seat specific questioning

Big question in blue-yellow battles is how much you can trust the Ashcroft 2 stage seat specific questioning

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Illuminating observations from the inventor – UKPR’s Anthony Wells There’s a big debate going on over the Lord Ashcroft style two stage questioning in his single constituency polls of which there have been more than 150. It will be recalled that after asking the standard voting question he puts a second one suggesting that those sampled focus on their own seat and the candidates who might stand. The numbers that are highlighted are the responses to the latter not the…

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UPDATED: Opinium, ComRes and YoGov all have LAB retaining its leads

UPDATED: Opinium, ComRes and YoGov all have LAB retaining its leads

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The latest YouGov poll for the Sunday Times has CON 32 LAB 35 LD 7 UKIP 15 GRN 6 — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) February 15, 2015 LAB retains 2% lead in latest Opinium poll for the Observer LAB 35+1 CON 33+1 LD 8+1 UKIP 14-1 GRN 6-2 — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) February 14, 2015 ComRes IoS./S Mirror poll also has LAB 2 ahead CON 32% -1 LAB  34%= LD  7% = UKIP 16% -2 GRN  4% +1 — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) February 14, 2015 UKIP's share seems to have declined in most recent…

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Henry G Manson says that in past fortnight we’ve seen a different EdM with an effective gameplan

Henry G Manson says that in past fortnight we’ve seen a different EdM with an effective gameplan

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@Ed_Miliband kicks off by going with the tax avoidance issue pic.twitter.com/b7p8pp0pNC — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) February 11, 2015 Why he’s becoming like tennis player Lleyton Hewitt at his prime It’s easy to look at British politics as though it were boxing. Journalists will often speak of whether there were any ‘knock out blows’ in Prime Minister’s. Instead I look at the it through the prism of sport I love, which PB old hands know is tennis. Of course there are…

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CON to LAB swing in 40 key marginals moves to 4.5% according to new ComRes ITV poll

CON to LAB swing in 40 key marginals moves to 4.5% according to new ComRes ITV poll

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Tonight's ComRes ITV News poll of 40 key marginal represents CON to LAB swing of 4.5% pic.twitter.com/98KhgExcMP — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) February 13, 2015 New ComRes poll of 40 most marg Lab/Con seats: Con 31% (NC), Lab 40% (+1), LD 8% (+1), UKIP 15% (-3), Green 5% (+1). In 2010, Con/Lab on 37% — Stephen Tall (@stephentall) February 13, 2015 Just 12% tell ComRes ITV marginals poll that the key factor in voting choice is which party leader will make…

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LAB might be edging up in all recent polls – but punters staying solidly with CON taking most seats

LAB might be edging up in all recent polls – but punters staying solidly with CON taking most seats

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Latest betting Goodish polling news for LAB not affecting the betting. Seat spreads from @SportingIndexhttp://bit.ly/1DHtmVS pic.twitter.com/1WJc51glb3 — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) February 13, 2015 Latest Betfair exchange prices have LAB seats a 43% chance. Value bet given polls. pic.twitter.com/ePz5UMaqWR — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) February 13, 2015 Latest polls Populus online has LAB 34 CON 31 LD 9 UKIP 14 GRN 6 — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) February 13, 2015 LAB After yesterday's YouGov with a 1% lead tonight's has CON 31 LAB 34 LD 7 UKIP 15 GRN 7 — Mike…

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