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Category: General Election

Marf on Jihadi John and the afternoon round-up

Marf on Jihadi John and the afternoon round-up

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Marf with a poignant cartoon on Jihadi John pic.twitter.com/ZT1gNSLw6n — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) February 27, 2015 LAB back in the lead with Populus CON 31 LAB 33 LD 9 UKIP 16 GRN 6 — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) February 27, 2015 Another week & another forecast from Oxford's @StephenDFisher Very tight pic.twitter.com/3Pi3aE54Zf — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) February 27, 2015 A bit unfair on UKIP? Publicity stunt for "The Producers" at Margate – UKIP conference venue. Hot pants & swastikas pic.twitter.com/cXwRT8vZ1j — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) February 27,…

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If the boundary changes had gone through the result of GE15 would be less of a cliff-hanger

If the boundary changes had gone through the result of GE15 would be less of a cliff-hanger

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Jesse Norman – the old Etonian MP who led the 2012 CON backbench rebellion on House of Lords Reform pic.twitter.com/61siWbjrar — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) February 27, 2015 Did old-Etonian Jesse Norman cost his party the election? On July 11th 2012 David Cameron was seen to be having a furious row with his fellow old-Etonian, Jesse Norman, who had just led the successful backbench revolt against planned House of Lords reform. Cameron knew very clearly what this meant. The boundary changes,…

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TNS poll sees the SNP extend their lead from 10% to 16%

TNS poll sees the SNP extend their lead from 10% to 16%

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Based on UNS, the TNS Scotland poll would see the following seat totals. pic.twitter.com/wFMmMZ3BYr — TSE (@TSEofPB) February 26, 2015 Time appears to be running out for SLAB and Jim Murphy to avoid a shellacking in May. TNS’ second poll this year, brings them into line with all the others bar Panelbase who have substantial leads for the SNP. For those expecting differential turnout in Scotland to have an effect in May, “A majority of voters (61%) say they are…

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A leading academic forecasting model gives Farage just a 2% chance in South Thanet – Betfair punters have it at 60%

A leading academic forecasting model gives Farage just a 2% chance in South Thanet – Betfair punters have it at 60%

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Nigel Farage in Thanet South pic.twitter.com/dIt7eHFjCT — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) February 26, 2015 %age probability of UKIP victory in target seats from @Election4castUK S Thanet 2% chance pic.twitter.com/jfsBLKJilp — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) February 26, 2015 Betfair exchange UKIP South Thanet (Farage) a 60%chance pic.twitter.com/SrnGnR5oP6 — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) February 26, 2015 It was Tim Montgomerie in today’s Times who alerted me to the forecast for Farage’s South Thanet that has been produced by the 2015 UK Parliamentary Election Forecast – a…

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The MPs second job issue could have salience

The MPs second job issue could have salience

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YouGov finds strong support for stopping MPs have 2nd jobs pic.twitter.com/FPshaSczKw — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) February 25, 2015 Cameron’s right but it’s a hard sell Ed Miliband, inevitably given what’s happened this week, made MPs outside interests his primary focus at PMQs. The Labour approach is to control second jobs and there is a vote tonight on the issue. The question this far out from an election is whether this might resonate as we saw with the expenses saga ahead…

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There’s no clear picture in England where 532 of the 650 Westminster seats are located

There’s no clear picture in England where 532 of the 650 Westminster seats are located

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How many of the CON 2010 gains can be retained? At the end of last year I started monitoring England only data from the main pollsters partly in response to the very different political environment that’s developed in Scotland. All the phone pollsters are providing this in their regular datasets as well as Survation and Opinium. It would be great if YouGov and Populus could follow suit. For if, as expected, LAB suffers major losses to the SNP in Scotland…

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Tonight’s cartoon from Marf (on Sir Malcolm of course) and the evening polling thread

Tonight’s cartoon from Marf (on Sir Malcolm of course) and the evening polling thread

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Marf on Sir Malcolm pic.twitter.com/aKlmQdU3MV — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) February 24, 2015 Two polls due this evening. Survation for the Mirror and the usual YouGov. They’ll be posted here as soon as they are out. Last month Survation had CON 31, LAB 30, LD 7, UKIP 23, GRN 3. Last YpouGov had CON & LAB tied. UPDATE LAB moves from 1% behind to 6% ahead in tonight’s Survation/Mirror poll Thee was a slightly smaller lead, check the third box on…

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Turnout’s going to be higher surely on May 7th – but how much higher?

Turnout’s going to be higher surely on May 7th – but how much higher?

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SPIN opens its GE15 turnout market with 70% the mid-point Sporting Index, which is sponsoring PB’s GE15 coverage, has put up a range of new spread markets including one on the turnout level. The opening spread is 69.7% – 70.3% making a mid-point of 70%. If you think that it is going to be higher then you bet on 70.3% and for every percentage point above that level you will receive your initial stake level. So if it was 73.3%…

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