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Labour’s London progress could be masking a bigger trend: the party’s putting on most support where it doesn’t need it

Labour’s London progress could be masking a bigger trend: the party’s putting on most support where it doesn’t need it

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CON up 2 in London YouGov poll, LAB & LD up 1 – UKIP & GRN both down pic.twitter.com/l7YNd4Qi18 — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) March 31, 2015 The latest spate of London polls has been very positive for Labour with vote shares in the capital up 9% or more on 2010. It really does look as though the party is going to do very well there. The only problem is that there aren’t that many CON targets apart from Hendon, Brentford…

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CON retains its TNS 1% lead, encouraging YouGov ratings news for Ed, and the CON spread lead moves up to 14

CON retains its TNS 1% lead, encouraging YouGov ratings news for Ed, and the CON spread lead moves up to 14

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CON retains 1% lead with TNS CON 33% (-) LAB 32% (-) UKIP 16%(-1) LD 8% (+1) GN 5% (+1) — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) March 31, 2015 On range of measures Times Redbox YouGov polling finds significant improvements on last month for EdM pic.twitter.com/4gel4QUBKn — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) March 31, 2015 CON lead on @SportingIndex http://t.co/rSKroIPwt1 seats markets moves up to 14. Was 9 9 on Sun. pic.twitter.com/xfW3JJ8B0c — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) March 31, 2015 The second morning of GE2015 TNS, with its new…

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How the CON to LAB swing has been changing in the marginals

How the CON to LAB swing has been changing in the marginals

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What will tomorrow’s polls show – UP or DOWN? The first number I hunt out when Lord Ashcroft publishes a new set of marginals’ polling is the average CON to LAB swing in the seats being surveyed. This gives a good pointer to the way things are going. Tomorrow the good Lord is providing us with eight more separate constituency polls with the usual 1,000 sample in each. The chart shows the movement in the swing in each wave of…

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Lord Ashcroft becomes the third pollster in a row not to support the YouGov 4% LAB lead poll

Lord Ashcroft becomes the third pollster in a row not to support the YouGov 4% LAB lead poll

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Details from @LordAshcroft poll pic.twitter.com/XJsmUnMxwB — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) March 30, 2015 There’ve been three published polls since the Sunday Times YouGov LAB 4% lead poll. ComRes had 4% CON lead last night, Populus had the parties level pegging this morning and now Lord Ashcroft has a 2% CON lead. So it is starting to look as though YouGov might have been an outlier. We’ll see what the firm’s latest poll has tonight. It is starting to look as though…

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The official campaign Day 1: The line-up for Thursday night and an interesting betting market for the 7 sided event

The official campaign Day 1: The line-up for Thursday night and an interesting betting market for the 7 sided event

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Via @montie The line up for Thursday night's debate pic.twitter.com/ttXLBB3ktU — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) March 30, 2015 How do you create interesting betting market for 7 way debate? This from @SportingIndex http://t.co/rSKroIPwt1 pic.twitter.com/wl6zvGgjFM — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) March 30, 2015 The line up on the stage was decided by lots being drawn this morning. It is hard to work out who has come out best. Farage has Clegg on his left and Miliband on his right though he’s some way…

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If teachers are as hostile to the Tories as they were 16 months ago that could have a huge impact on May 7th

If teachers are as hostile to the Tories as they were 16 months ago that could have a huge impact on May 7th

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At almost exactly this point before GE2010 YouGov had CON ahead with teachers In December 2013 that had become a 41% LAB lead It was said in July that this was why Lynton was behind the Gove sacking During one of the breaks at the big LSE GE forecasting conference on Friday I was asked for suggestions of ideas for interesting polling that could tell us more than what we see in standard surveys or constituency polling. After pondering this…

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Leanne Wood could be the 2015 Nick Clegg and at 50-1 might be a good punt to win Thursday’s debate

Leanne Wood could be the 2015 Nick Clegg and at 50-1 might be a good punt to win Thursday’s debate

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She has the benefit of not being much known outside Wales Just had a punt with Ladbrokes at 50/1 that Plaid leader, Leanne Wood, will top the quickie polls after Thursday night’s seven-sided debate. She’ll be fresh to a full national audience, has a pleasant manner, and handles herself well on TV. She’ll also attract less of the hostility that some of the others on the platform are likely to attract. The rules ensure that she should get equal time…

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The voting intentions of those who watched Thursday’s programme and those that didn’t

The voting intentions of those who watched Thursday’s programme and those that didn’t

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Lab has 19% lead with who watched on Thurs. 12% Lab lead with who watched some/clips. Con 6% ahead with non viewers pic.twitter.com/cVUJjdXYp3 — TSE (@TSEofPB) March 29, 2015 Nearly 20% of the YouGov respondents watched Thursday’s programme, whereas around only 5% of the public actually watched the programme so this might be what may be somewhat over amplifying Ed’s performance and the Labour lead. What does indicate that is a good poll for Labour and Ed is the relative improvement…

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