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If uniform swing still has some validity then LAB is holding up reasonably well – but does it?

If uniform swing still has some validity then LAB is holding up reasonably well – but does it?

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From the polling in the first week of the official campaign it is hard to draw any conclusions. See Wiki list pic.twitter.com/kjoEbkEFjs — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) April 7, 2015 Projecting seats numbers: Bottom up or top down? The Easter holidays are over. Now it gets serious. Will one of the main parties end the stalemate and draw clear across a range of pollsters? Hard to say. All the post-debate polling has shown LAB on the same 33%. What has differed…

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Cameron’s view of UKIP voters effectively being just “Tories on holiday” not supported by polling

Cameron’s view of UKIP voters effectively being just “Tories on holiday” not supported by polling

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Nearly 70% didn’t vote Blue in 2010 The Telegraph is leading on a big interview it has with Cameron during which the CON leader made a special appeal to UKIP voters. The report notes:- “In an interview with The Telegraph, the Prime Minister insisted that he has heard the message of frustrated Tory voters “loud and clear” but is now appealing to them to help him “avert the danger of a Labour government”.With one month until the polls open, Mr…

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Easter Monday afternoon polling round-up

Easter Monday afternoon polling round-up

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Latest YouGov Scotland poll. Independence Q: Yes 46% No 48% DK/WNV 6% — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) April 6, 2015 Last 2 YouGov Scottish independence polls have have had NO in lead. 8 weeks ago YES led by 5% — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) April 6, 2015 Pre-debate YouGov Scotland poll just publishedSNP 46% (nc) Lab 29% (+2) Con 16% (-2) LD 3% (-1) — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) April 6, 2015 At GE10 YouGov didn't have a poll on Easter Monday –…

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Just over a week to go before voting starts

Just over a week to go before voting starts

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For about a fifth of voters the campaign is nearly over You might have thought that there’s more than a month to go in this election but early next week the first postal voting packs will be going out and people will start voting in GE2015. The actual day that the postals will be dispatched varies from one council area to another. Generally those where the general election is the only one which is taking place on May 7th will…

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Private UKIP poll has Farage behind in South Thanet

Private UKIP poll has Farage behind in South Thanet

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The Thanet ComRes poll Farage censored via @suttonnick http://t.co/J2ax7nThki pic.twitter.com/bGXW0g0Z9N — TSE (@TSEofPB) April 4, 2015 Last night The Mail on Sunday reported Nigel Farage faced claims of a ‘cover-up’ last night for censoring a poll that suggests he is on course for a humiliating personal defeat in the General Election. The secret Ukip-commissioned poll, leaked to The Mail on Sunday, shows that Farage has fallen behind his Tory opponent in the Kent seat he is contesting. And he is…

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Big hope for the Tories: Labour’s cack-handed campaigning will alienate 2010 LD switchers and tacticals

Big hope for the Tories: Labour’s cack-handed campaigning will alienate 2010 LD switchers and tacticals

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LAB could have made this even less appealing to potential LD switchers with pics of Blunkett & Straw pic.twitter.com/cl7FIxKMW3 — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) April 4, 2015 This is electorally illiterate The only chance that LAB has on May 7th is by keeping on board the 2010 LD switchers who’ve moved since last time and winning support of yellow tactical voters in the marginals. Labour’s polling position has been buttressed by the ex-LDs for the past four years. The good news…

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