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Category: General Election

For only the second time ever Survation has CON ahead

For only the second time ever Survation has CON ahead

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The turning of the tide or just sample variation? Survation trend chart including their latest with CON lead pic.twitter.com/CtBrHBYt9Y — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) April 17, 2015 CON take the lead in D Mirror Survation pollCON 34% (+4); LAB 33% (-2); UKIP 17% (+1); LD 7% (-1); SNP 4% (NC); GRE 3% (-1) — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) April 17, 2015 This is only the second time Survation has ever shown the Tories in the lead, since they started in 2011… —…

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Announcing PB’s General Election night event + today’s Populus poll

Announcing PB’s General Election night event + today’s Populus poll

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2200-0600 May 7th 2015 – Finborough Arms Kensington This is from Jeff Bell who used to post as Stonch. “Kensington and Chelsea have now granted me and all night licence for the Finborough on May 7th so I can go ahead with an election all-nighter. The event will be ticket only from 10pm when polls close (the pub will be open to the public that day from 5pm however). The cost is £15 and that includes tea and coffee, mineral…

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Even with Scotland will LAB still be able to win more seats than CON for the same national vote share?

Even with Scotland will LAB still be able to win more seats than CON for the same national vote share?

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Profs Chris Hanretty, John Curtice & Phil Cowley at the PSA GE15 briefing pic.twitter.com/qqf3iFqkKx — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) April 17, 2015 The academic experts are divided over electoral bias One of the massive questions hanging over the May 7th outcome is the impact of what we are all familiar with – electoral bias that has meant that there’s a long history of LAB getting more seats for the same vote share than the Tories. A lot of this has been…

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Who’s won and will it make it any difference to the election campaign?

Who’s won and will it make it any difference to the election campaign?

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It's over. Now we wait for the poll to tell us who have won. pic.twitter.com/ssnQy2qi2l — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) April 16, 2015 I wonder if Cameron regrets not taking part. pic.twitter.com/fRcUE1tMPN — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) April 16, 2015 Miliband wins Survation post-debate pollMiliband – 35%Sturgeon – 31%Farage – 27%Bennett – 5%Wood – 2% — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) April 16, 2015 Via @PickardJE Killer poll: Straight contest, Cameron and Miliband to be PM?Cameron – 40%Miliband – 45%DK – 5%Survation/Mirror — Mike…

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Farage the 13/8 betting favourite to “win” tonight’s Challengers’ Debate

Farage the 13/8 betting favourite to “win” tonight’s Challengers’ Debate

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But don’t expect much polling Farage 13/8 PaddyPower Sturgeon 9/4 William Hill Miliband 3/1 Ladbrokes Wood 25/1 Bet 365 Bennett 28/1 Bet 365 It is perhaps an indication of how tonight’s event is being regarded is that there is going to be very little polling. Survation are doing a survey for the Mirror and as far as I know at the moment that is it. So the betting markets on who wins will be based on the Survation findings. I…

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LAB lead up and Ed ratings boost in latest Ipsos-MORI phone poll

LAB lead up and Ed ratings boost in latest Ipsos-MORI phone poll

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Via @politicalpics Is this what we should be expecting? pic.twitter.com/Ne7C1wTMbh — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) April 16, 2015 Ipsos-MORI has LAB lead at 2 Lab 35 (+1), Con 33 (nc), Ukip 10 (-3), Green 8 (+2), LD 7 (-1) http://t.co/zogd88r0Fx — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) April 16, 2015 The main Ipsos-MORI satisfaction ratings which it had been polling for 40 years pic.twitter.com/Z0cQLdcgjf — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) April 16, 2015 After the debate about phone polls and internet ones today’s Ipsos-MORI survey for…

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The leading academic forecasters gather for the biggest event before May 7th

The leading academic forecasters gather for the biggest event before May 7th

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Hopefully this’ll provide us with further insights It’s an early start for me this morning to get to Westminster for what looks set to be the most important gathering of academic forecasters before the big day. Its being arranged by the Political Studies Association and features just about all the big names and academic forecasting groups. The briefing will cover “Latest national polling; likely distribution of seats; viability of minority government; feasible coalition permutations; likely time needed to form Government;…

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The second big PB GE2015 Commons Seats Prediction Prize Competition:

The second big PB GE2015 Commons Seats Prediction Prize Competition:

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How many seats of the 632 GB seats will each party get In February we ran our first competition using the Nojam.com template. Clearly things have moved on since then and this is the second wave. Entries will close AFTER the debate tomorrow night. I am delighted to announce that Sporting Index, which is sponsoring PB’s General Election coverage, has once again agreed to provide a competition prize of £200, payable into the winner’s SPIN account. If the winner does…

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