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Category: General Election

The reports of high turnout might be down to the fact it’ll go dark before 4pm

The reports of high turnout might be down to the fact it’ll go dark before 4pm

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One voter says she was queuing for 35 minutes ? #GE2019 https://t.co/p8USmaBLyV — Evening Standard (@standardnews) December 12, 2019 On Betfair punters moving away from a CON majority which was an 80% chance. Chart via @betdatapolitics pic.twitter.com/y5wLbQm8GZ — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) December 12, 2019 CON seats buy on the @sportingindex spreads drops below 340https://t.co/4YkmMD4pUd pic.twitter.com/kzGRNQPEbg — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) December 12, 2019

General Election 2019 : The PB Guide to Election Night

General Election 2019 : The PB Guide to Election Night

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10.00pm GMT December 12th 2019 The Exit Poll This is what will frame the entire election night. If the exit poll says more than 335 Conservative MP’s (Con maj 20+) then every single Conservative will say “It is only an exit poll, but given the accuracy of the past three exit polls, I think it is clear that our core message of “Get Brexit Done” has resonated with the British people and we can now enact the referendum result of…

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A hung parliament is now in view as the YouGov MRP shows the Tory majority halved to 28

A hung parliament is now in view as the YouGov MRP shows the Tory majority halved to 28

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NEW YouGov MRP Conservative majority of 28 CON 339 (+22)LAB 231 (-31)SNP 41 (+6) LIB 15 (+3) https://t.co/57PHLcUoOK — Henry Zeffman (@hzeffman) December 10, 2019 YouGov / Sky News final MRP Headlines ** Tory Majority projected at 28, down from 68** The margin of error means YouGov cannot rule out a hung Parliament** Lab back ahead in Weaver Vale and Watson seat of West Bromwich East — Sam Coates Sky (@SamCoatesSky) December 10, 2019 YouGov / Sky News final MRP…

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New YouGov polling finds remainers more likely than leavers to vote tactically

New YouGov polling finds remainers more likely than leavers to vote tactically

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With tactical voting likely to play a big part on Thursday YouGov has just published some new polling showing that overall a quarter of voters will now be putting their crosses against their first choice. That seems a high figure and reflects the way the GE2019 narrative has revolved. For many Brexit is the overwhelming issue and many appear ready to switch to the party they dislike in order to have the maximum impact. A lot, of course, depends on…

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GE2019 polling and betting update

GE2019 polling and betting update

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Wikipedia list of latest polling with the latest, from ICM, showing LAB the closest pic.twitter.com/sDwy6TZAxQ — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) December 10, 2019 Tory seats up 4 on last night on the @sportingindex Commons seats spread markethttps://t.co/rSKroIPwt1 pic.twitter.com/TMKBAPq9Tp — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) December 10, 2019

At exactly this stage before GE2017 punters rated TMay’s majority chances higher than they rate Johnson’s now

At exactly this stage before GE2017 punters rated TMay’s majority chances higher than they rate Johnson’s now

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The final few days of Betfair betting in June 2017 Remember Kinnock at GE1992 It is perhaps worth reminding ourselves what happened last time and how the received opinion of those who risk their money betting on politics got it totally wrong. At exactly this point, 9.20am on the Tuesday beforehand, a CON majority traded at 81% on Betfair. Over the next two and half days it was to go even higher only for things to be brought back to…

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The betting markets firm up even more on a CON majority

The betting markets firm up even more on a CON majority

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CON seats on the spreads up 5 SportingIndex On Betfair CON majority now a 75% chance It has been a good final Monday on the betting markets for Johnson’s Tories with punters becoming increasingly convinced that the PM will achieve his objective of securing an overall majority. This mood is inevitably reflected in the detailed single seats markets where there might be bargains to be had. In polling terms the latest surveys have the CON lead between 6% (ICM) and…

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