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Category: EU Referendum

BMG polls brings good news for both sides

BMG polls brings good news for both sides

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From @BMGResearch, data indicates Leave voters easier to contact/poll than Remain voters https://t.co/zksowqJqxs pic.twitter.com/vnLNZ4EEMy — TSE (@TSEofPB) June 18, 2016 The modal differences strikes backs BMG have conducted simultaneous online and phone polls. The online poll sees what we’ve seen in other recent polls, with a significant swing to Leave, giving Leave a 10% lead. BMG’s debut EURef poll does give Remain a 7% lead,BMG themselves say they prefer their phone poll over the online poll because of understanding which…

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The EURef might be more like the AV referendum and not the Indyref

The EURef might be more like the AV referendum and not the Indyref

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Last time there was a UK wide referendum the focus was on a large amount of money & it being better spent on the NHS pic.twitter.com/Dp8EoWhhJv — TSE (@TSEofPB) June 17, 2016 A lot of people, myself included, have often drawn comparisons between the EU referendum and the Scottish independence referendum, but perhaps the better comparison is with the AV referendum of 2011. The similarities are uncanny David Cameron is perceived to have betrayed his political allies by taking a…

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Roger on a step change in negative political advertising

Roger on a step change in negative political advertising

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Embed from Getty Images   “Politics is the art of looking for trouble, diagnosing it incorrectly and applying the wrong remedies.” – Groucho Marx Exactly six weeks ago in my first header on the campaign from an advertising perspective I wrote “The advantages of a negative campaign by REMAIN are obvious, the unknown can be made to seem a scary place. By contrast for the LEAVERS dystopian visions are a difficult sell when the EU has been with us for…

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EU Referendum turnout betting

EU Referendum turnout betting

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Sporting Index have a market up on the referendum turnout. Alastair Meeks tipped it when it was 62, but I still think at its current mid price of 68 it is still a buy for the following reasons With Leave looking like they could win, it will motivate Leave voters to turnout and ensure victory. Remain voters who might have stayed at home if the polls were showing a comfortable Remain victory will now be motivated to turnout. With Individual…

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Politics doesn’t matter today

Politics doesn’t matter today

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Birstall – what we know:– MP Jo Cox in "critical condition"– Man "slightly injured"– 52-year-old man arrestedhttps://t.co/pbBKlBPWby — BBC News (UK) (@BBCNews) June 16, 2016 https://twitter.com/StrongerIn/status/743439773998661638 On the @vote_leave bus @BorisJohnson says he is going to suspend campaigning after the shooting of Jo Cox MP — Faisal Islam (@faisalislam) June 16, 2016 Both campaigns have rightly suspended their campaigns, the only focus should be on hoping Jo Cox makes a full and speedy recovery. TSE

Ipsos Mori phone poll sees a 10% swing to Leave as Leave take a 6% lead – Update Survation sees Leave take the lead

Ipsos Mori phone poll sees a 10% swing to Leave as Leave take a 6% lead – Update Survation sees Leave take the lead

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Overall population split down middle – BUT voters favour LEAVE #EUref pic.twitter.com/3AVo4Y35E7 — Ben Page (@benatipsos) June 16, 2016 The plethora of (significant) Leave leads are at variance with Betfair. David Cameron is finding EU Can’t Always Get What You Want. He must be feeling like Gonville Bromhead, as he’s told the pollsters report Brextieers….millions of them. What this poll finds is that the focus on immigration and Turkey is working for Leave whilst the Remain attack lines on the economy…

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The locomotive of politics

The locomotive of politics

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Take a deep breath.  The scent in your nostrils is the dusty burnt smell of scorched earth politics from the referendum.  George Osborne has pre-launched the emergency budget he would advocate in the event of a Leave vote, to the fury of half of his own party’s backbenchers.  Dozens have already publicly declared that they would vote against it. Just as extraordinarily, the Leave camp have issued their manifesto should they win.  These policies, none of which have been through…

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The Austro-Hungarian parable

The Austro-Hungarian parable

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Austria-Hungary does not have a good press nowadays.  It is vaguely thought of as an autocratic dysfunctional empire whose demise was unmourned.  Lands that once formed a single empire that had been ruled by the Hapsburgs for centuries are now shared between a dozen independent countries.  No one clamours for it to be reconstituted. Is this a parable for the fate of the EU?  Perhaps.  But the parable might be a bit more complex than that. For a start, Austria-Hungary…

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