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Category: EU Referendum

Tim Montgomerie’s right: Current government policy decisions are driven by need not to be unpopular on EURef day

Tim Montgomerie’s right: Current government policy decisions are driven by need not to be unpopular on EURef day

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Airport delay. Tax cred Uturn. Slower cuts… Me for @CapX on No10's pre-referendum campaign https://t.co/mXTlrvH2nz pic.twitter.com/xkRM6je9xo — Tim Montgomerie ?? (@montie) January 1, 2016 Everything for the next few months is about the EU vote One of the great problems with referenda is that by the time we get to polling day the issue might have moved on from the issue on the ballot paper to a vote of confidence in the incumbent government. Arguably the AV vote in 2011…

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Questioning the patriotism of Remain voters will not win the referendum for Leave

Questioning the patriotism of Remain voters will not win the referendum for Leave

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Margaret Thatcher showing off her pro-EU credentials in the 1975 referendum. pic.twitter.com/jrX2Oyz7Hj — TSE (@TSEofPB) December 27, 2015 This week William Hague explained why he would vote for the UK to Remain in the EU in the upcoming referendum, as a former Tory leader and Foreign Secretary this inevitably led to a lot of comment about someone who has been considered a Eurosceptic voting for Remain. For me the most illuminating comment came from Mark Reckless, the former Tory MP…

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UKIP’s attempt to block the scrapping of roaming charges will play badly in the EURef campaign

UKIP’s attempt to block the scrapping of roaming charges will play badly in the EURef campaign

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Appearing to put the interests of big business first might not be smart One of the things which the REMAIN campaign finds hard is giving specific examples of what the EU does for individual voters. One such area now is the decision taken at the end of October, to end all mobile phone roaming charges for use in the EU in 18 months time. This means that the millions of UK smartphone users who travel to Europe each year won’t…

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LAB’s one big hope is that the Tories will tear themselves apart over the EU

LAB’s one big hope is that the Tories will tear themselves apart over the EU

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What’s the post EURef blue team going to be like? The Tories have a long history of tearing themselves apart over Europe. Who can forget how in the weeks after John Major’s sensational election victory in 1992 huge fault lines started to develop in the party. It wasn’t helped by “black Wednesday” – that extraordinary day when Britain could not sustain the value of sterling on the foreign exchanges markets and the country had to leave the ERM. How lucky…

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Latest ICM EURef tracker edges to REMAIN in line with other recent polling

Latest ICM EURef tracker edges to REMAIN in line with other recent polling

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In what’s likely to be the last EURef poll of 2015 ICM online reports an increase in the REMAIN lead from 1% a week ago to 7% now. This is the same direction that we’ve seen in all EURef polls over past week. One of the great rules of polling analysis is that whenever possible you shouldn’t treat one poll on its own. How does the trend compare with others with fieldwork at about the same time? What’s the general…

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With perhaps just 6 months before EURef most people it seems don’t give a damn about the EU

With perhaps just 6 months before EURef most people it seems don’t give a damn about the EU

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Just 1% tell Ipsos MORI that EU most important issue facing the country With perhaps only months to go before Britain votes on whether or not to remain in the EU the latest Ipsos MORI Issues Index shows that those thinking this is Britain’s biggest issue is just 1%. Another 4% named it as one the other issues facing the country but that only makes a paltry 5%. You’d have thought that with all the effort going into to the…

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Immigration might be the most important issue facing the country but it isn’t the only issue

Immigration might be the most important issue facing the country but it isn’t the only issue

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If UKIP and Leave want to make further progress and win the referendum they need to talk about things other than immigration. We see in the Ipsos Mori issues index (and in other polling) on a regular and consistent basis immigration/immigrants as the most important issue facing the UK yet if immigration/immigrants really was the most important issue then UKIP would have picked up more than one seat in May as David Cameron’s spectacular failure to cut net immigration in the…

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There could be only six months of EURef campaigning left before Britain decides

There could be only six months of EURef campaigning left before Britain decides

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Big news from the EU talks is that the referendum might be just 6 months away https://t.co/QNPB9pc8nC pic.twitter.com/L0v0Ilt0CC — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) December 19, 2015 Cameron says he’s “on the way to a deal” It has been known for sometime that Dave/George want to get the referendum out of the way as soon as possible and overnight the news from the Brussels talks is that the favoured timing could be June or July. The last thing ministers want is for…

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