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Category: EU Referendum

How a Labour coup against Corbyn in May could win the EU referendum for Leave

How a Labour coup against Corbyn in May could win the EU referendum for Leave

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Why David Cameron and Remain should be hoping Labour does really well in May’s elections. A Labour leadership contest at the same time as the referendum campaign could favour Leave. Whilst it might seem like the EU referendum is solely an internal Tory party matter, if David Cameron wants Remain to win, he’s going to need Labour voters to turn out for Remain. David Cameron may not be the best person to get Labour voters to come out and vote…

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Polling analysis: UKIP supporters make up the biggest group of those wanting OUT, LAB ones of those wanting to stay

Polling analysis: UKIP supporters make up the biggest group of those wanting OUT, LAB ones of those wanting to stay

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Tory voters are very much split between the two I don’t think this form of analysis has been done so far in the campaign – where are the supporters of either side coming from. What surprised me was that the Tory general election support is almost totally split between the two sides and is not the dominant segment in either. Turnout is clearly going to be important and whether the Tory vote remain broadly split will stay as it is…

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Missing the point. How the Remain campaign is failing

Missing the point. How the Remain campaign is failing

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Alastair Meeks on the Remain campaign With roughly 100 days to go to the referendum, the Remain campaign is no doubt feeling cautiously optimistic.  While the renegotiation of terms has not inspired, Remain has had a much better air war than Leave to date.  David Cameron has vigorously warned of the manifold dangers that he has identified if Britain should leave the EU.  A stately procession of the great and the good is being lined up to walk past us,…

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The EURef betting numbers remain solid for IN

The EURef betting numbers remain solid for IN

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Scroll down for charts and more data The above graphic created by Michael Dent is updated every 20 minutes and show the latest Betfair betting price on the June 23rd EU referendum. The default position is to show odds as a percentage but punters might like to click the DEC odds tab, What is striking is how little variation there has been which, of course, is a broad reflection of the polling. The March round of phone polls could make…

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The blue on blue fight is making the EURef seem like an all-CON affair and that could impact on turnout

The blue on blue fight is making the EURef seem like an all-CON affair and that could impact on turnout

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Donald Brind on the turnout worries within the Labour IN Campaign Senior women in the Labour party are becoming increasingly concerned that the EU referendum could be lost because women stay away from the polls on June 23rd. They see a campaign dominated by male voices and polluted by noise from the increasingly vicious Blue on Blue attacks. Labour pro-Europeans fear the arcane battle within the Tory tribe will depress interest in the campaign among Labour voters and especially among…

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For someone who’s got reputation for laziness Cameron’s running rings round the outers

For someone who’s got reputation for laziness Cameron’s running rings round the outers

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Alastair Meeks on the high energy PM Every politician is viewed in caricature.  David Cameron is no exception.  Journalists routinely write of him being like Flashman, of being lazy, of being an essay crisis Prime Minister who doesn’t do detail unless his back is against a wall, of being a man of no particular vision beyond keeping things steady as she goes. It is very hard to square this caricature with the David Cameron who has been working towards the…

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Cyclefree’s analysis of the Remain campaign

Cyclefree’s analysis of the Remain campaign

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Picture credit: Britain Stronger In Facebook page While there has rightly been analysis of an often incoherent Leave campaign, perhaps some scrutiny is needed of some common Remain tropes – those focusing on why we should stay rather than why we should not Leave – and what they might mean for the referendum result and the UK’s longer term relationship with its European neighbours. 1. We will be in a reformed EU and can continue with further reform. This is…

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Why you shouldn’t assume a Brexiter will be Cameron’s successor

Why you shouldn’t assume a Brexiter will be Cameron’s successor

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59% of Tory members back Brexit but only 20% of  members consider backing a Brexiter as the most important criteria in deciding who should be the next leader of the Tory party. The Tories will back someone who is seen as an election winner over a Brexiter. When the Tory Party starts obsessing about the European Union, it is the political equivalent of putting an unlimited supply of laxatives into the monkey house. Excrement starts getting flung in all directions, we…

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