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Category: EU Referendum

Guest slot: Polling analysis finds Labour Loses Supporters of Brexit

Guest slot: Polling analysis finds Labour Loses Supporters of Brexit

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Embed from Getty Images   Philip Walker analyses the polling and finds 3 in Every 7 of Labour’s 2015 Voters Backing Brexit Would Not Vote Labour in 2016 In the EU referendum, online and phone polls have persistently been at odds. Last week, YouGov reacted by publishing in full a set of parallel online and phone polling conducted in early May, exposing flaws in the phone sample to defend its own online method.  For polling junkies that unprecedented transparency had a…

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We are getting to a point where LEAVE could be the value bet

We are getting to a point where LEAVE could be the value bet

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The record-break political gamble continues Until now I have refrained from betting on the referendum quite simply because the odds on neither side appear attractive. My instinct tells me to follow the phone polls but I’m not convinced that IN has an 80%+ chance of victory. This is in spite of the fact that Britain’s longest-established phone pollster, Ipsos MORI, is showing a margin of 20% once those not expressing a voting intention are stripped out. As Keiran Pedley argued…

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The EU can’t have its Turkey and eat it

The EU can’t have its Turkey and eat it

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The EURef highlights Europe’s ambivalence to its buffer state “Bridge Together”: Istanbul’s slogan for its unsuccessful 2020 Olympic bid captured well the country’s unifying potential, linking as it does not only Europe and Asia but also the secular west with the Islamic Middle East. A bridge, however, needs firm foundations and Turkey, rather than pulling two sides together, is more swayed by the forces pulling it in opposite directions. Hence the force of the arguments this week about its potential…

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LEAVE’s repeated refusal to accept that its £50m a day claim is untrue could cause problems if it wins

LEAVE’s repeated refusal to accept that its £50m a day claim is untrue could cause problems if it wins

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The Leave campaign’s central claim about the cost of the EU is basically a lie. https://t.co/DD2cR4hHVq — Adam Bienkov (@AdamBienkov) May 27, 2016 The basis for ministers to dismiss such a referendum result perhaps? Yet again the independent statistics watchdog has had to step in a declare that the key number that forms the basis of the LEAVE campaign is untrue. This has been used consistently by the outers and it has formed the basis for the core message. It…

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Making sense of the EUref polls? Watch discussion with Matt Singh, Keiran Pedley & Mike Smithson in PB Polling Matters TV Show

Making sense of the EUref polls? Watch discussion with Matt Singh, Keiran Pedley & Mike Smithson in PB Polling Matters TV Show

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We’re back. After a gap of three weeks while our hosts, Tip TV, moved into new premises the PB/Polling Matters TV show is on the air and inevitability it was dominated by the referendum. Keiran Pedley and I were joined by Matt Singh from Number Cruncher Politics. Is Leave really losing and what changes are pollsters making to their methods as polling day approaches? We also look ahead at the implications of the referendum on British politics in the longer…

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This looks like how REMAIN will play the closing four weeks

This looks like how REMAIN will play the closing four weeks

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This has been doing the rounds on Twitter & looks like the first Saatchi poster for REMAIN pic.twitter.com/439bBFCoA9 — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) May 26, 2016 Sowing seeds of doubt has been successful before The poster above has started being circulated on Twitter and my guess is that its is part of the Saatchi & Saatchi campaign for IN. The clarity of approach with a very simple message and even the typeface appear to be Saatchi house style. Whatever it is…

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Ex-Treasury minister & Brexiter, Andrea Leadsom, is having a good war and should be given a bigger role

Ex-Treasury minister & Brexiter, Andrea Leadsom, is having a good war and should be given a bigger role

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She’s starting to look like a possible leadership contender A new YouGov referendum poll published overnight has both sides level-pegging – a marked change from last week’s 4% REMAIN lead. It is a sharp reminder that this could be very close and reinforces the big polling story of this election – the huge divide between phone and online. If it is a very tight outcome then there will be enormous pressure on David Cameron and we could have a new…

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