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Category: EU Referendum

In past referenda polls tend to overstate the change option

In past referenda polls tend to overstate the change option

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In past plebiscites polls tend to overstate the change option @StephenDFisher analysis finds https://t.co/OPcbNigYyC pic.twitter.com/Ji9p5o65Kl — TSE (@TSEofPB) June 1, 2016 Stephen Fisher and Alan Renwick have analysed past referenda in the UK, and they notice that We reflect on the historical experience of polls for referendums in the UK. The graph shows the levels of support for the change option (excluding Don’t Knows) in polls and the final outcome for all ten referendums in the UK for which there…

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Just when you thought June 23rd couldn’t get any more exciting

Just when you thought June 23rd couldn’t get any more exciting

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If on June 23rd there are major movements on the betting and currency markets this is why. https://t.co/cKY5lx3Xtl pic.twitter.com/Q9GcWfQZMh — TSE (@TSEofPB) May 31, 2016 A private exit poll could trigger a run on Sterling and impact the outcome of the referendum The FT are reporting that Hedge funds and investment banks have commissioned private exit polls in an attempt to make profits from the result of the UK’s referendum on EU membership next month. By finding out the voting patterns…

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Mind the Gap

Mind the Gap

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Cyclefree: If Leave wins, immigration will likely have been one of the main factors.  But what then?  Indeed, what then if Remain wins? Much as with the EU debate itself, the immigration debate has been characterised by dishonesty, evasion and avoidance of reality. So – much like the Irishman asked for directions saying that they wouldn’t start from here – let me suggest some basic requirements for an immigration policy and compare them with what we have within the EU…

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ICM Phone poll sees Leave 4% ahead. A fortnight ago Remain was ahead by 10%

ICM Phone poll sees Leave 4% ahead. A fortnight ago Remain was ahead by 10%

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ICM EURef phone poll. Leave 52 (+7) Remain 48 (-7) changes from a fortnight ago. https://t.co/6SB9881fAU pic.twitter.com/AGJsLvre6I — TSE (@TSEofPB) May 31, 2016 Both the ICM phone and online polls show Leave winning by 4%. The phone poll sees a 7% swing from Remain to Leave, the online poll sees no swing. Like last night’s ORB phone poll, there’s been a significant shift to Leave, this time a 7% swing from Remain to Leave. What makes this poll very interesting…

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Guest Slot: A Look at the Remain Campaign.

Guest Slot: A Look at the Remain Campaign.

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  REMAIN now below 80% chance on Betfair for first time in 10 days pic.twitter.com/Of38yXY3Jk — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) May 30, 2016 David Kendrick looks at the Remain campagin The Remain approach has been strikingly one-paced. It has been relentlessly and exclusively negative. There has been nothing about how good the EU is, nor how it will become better. We have heard no ‘In 5 years time, the EU will…..We don’t want to get off this Euro-express.’ There is no…

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The Tories are dominating the referendum campaign and that’s not good news for Remain

The Tories are dominating the referendum campaign and that’s not good news for Remain

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If the referendum is seen solely as a Tory/right wing affair then non Tory/non right wing voters might not bother voting The Tories are dominating the EU referendum research finds, Part I. https://t.co/2cUA4YWHkv pic.twitter.com/QVnxit5WMv — TSE (@TSEofPB) May 30, 2016 Loughborough University’s Centre for Research in Communication and Culture has analysed the media coverage of the first few weeks of the referendum campaign. As we can see in the table above, it is being dominated by the Tories. If we look…

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A tale of two broadcasts. Roger’s critique of the opening two broadcasts

A tale of two broadcasts. Roger’s critique of the opening two broadcasts

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https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=h_MzHFiu-6Y https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qe7UUa62_6c [Political] ‘advertising isn’t about truth fairness or rationality, but about mobilising deeper and more primitive layers of the human mind.’ – Brian Eno. The first two campaign broadcasts couldn’t have been more different. A brutally apocalyptic one for LEAVE and a bright new tomorrow for REMAIN. The REMAIN spot features 14 month old Sam on a baby bike in his garden and through misty slow-motion sequences a young female voice-over talks us through the opportunities young Sam will…

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Fear and loathing in the Tory Party. Whatever the result of the referendum, the Tory party is looking ungovernable

Fear and loathing in the Tory Party. Whatever the result of the referendum, the Tory party is looking ungovernable

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If Labour had a decent leader, they’d be leading by at least double digits in the polls right now. A pro-Brexit Tory MP actually said this. Story by @ShippersUnbound and @STJamesl pic.twitter.com/ZHpW1oYwk1 — Michael Deacon (@MichaelPDeacon) May 29, 2016 Nadine Dorries also reveals she has called for a confidence vote in Cameron as Tory leader. "My letter is already in" @pestononsunday — Tom Newton Dunn (@tnewtondunn) May 29, 2016 William Hill cut odds for Cameron to stand down before end…

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