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Category: EU Referendum

There’s a danger of Leave peaking too soon

There’s a danger of Leave peaking too soon

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Is Leave really saying if we vote to Leave we'll still be in the EU in May 2020? https://t.co/W7qzh1Z8rS pic.twitter.com/58KkahagVQ — TSE (@TSEofPB) June 5, 2016 Only the churlish would deny it’s been a very good week for Leave, especially in the opinion polls, I think that’s in part because Leave have been focussing heavily on immigration, and moved away from the economy, where they are perceived to behind Remain. With another poll out tomorrow with Leave ahead, the narrative…

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The economics of discontent

The economics of discontent

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Does your income provide a comfortable lifestyle? Here’s what you said… pic.twitter.com/zz9AE41aKI — Moneywise (@Moneywiseonline) May 9, 2016 Alastair Meeks on why Leave is prospering Where did it all go right?  The bare statistics are breathtaking.  Even looking in percentage terms, employment rates are at all time highs, unemployment rates are at 10 year lows and the economic inactivity rate is also at a joint all time low (tying with 1990).  Job vacancies are hovering just below their all time…

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New Opinium poll has Remain still ahead but under their old methodology Leave would be ahead

New Opinium poll has Remain still ahead but under their old methodology Leave would be ahead

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Opinium Remain 43 (-1) Leave 41 (+1) but for new methodology Leave would be ahead https://t.co/A25xws4OWv pic.twitter.com/Api6tEZytX — TSE (@TSEofPB) June 4, 2016 Like the ORB and ICM phone polls, there appears to have been a marked shift towards Leave before the methodology change, what will also delight Leave is this, Opinium say ‘In our last poll, 47% leaned towards Remaining while 32% leaned the other way. In this latest poll, undecideds are nearly evenly split with 36% leaning towards…

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Guest slot: Politics after Brexit

Guest slot: Politics after Brexit

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Nick Palmer looks at what will really happen? It’s only quite recently that most serious commentators took the prospect of a Leave vote seriously. A consequence of that is that there has been very little serious analysis of what would happen next in political terms. Leave say we’ll feel free at last, Remain say the pound will plummet and we’ll risk an economic crisis. But what, specifically, will happen in terms of Government? Some suggestions: 1) Cameron will quit. It…

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Michael Gove’s very big night out

Michael Gove’s very big night out

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ConHome leader June 2016 next leader survey Last night on Sky News we saw the current Tory leader, tonight shall we be seeing the next Tory leader? My betting strategy says no. Tonight Michael Gove, who has led the ConHome readers’ vote to be next Tory leader for the last three will be putting the Leave side on Sky News. Whilst I have many doubts about the ConHome polling, not least because it offers a range of options to the…

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What should the losers do next on 24 June?

What should the losers do next on 24 June?

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Embed from Getty Images Alastair Meeks says one way or another we shall have a referendum result in three weeks’ time and one side will have won and one side will have lost.  What next for the losing side? If Remain lose The way forward for Remain if they lose is straightforward, even if it is unpalatable to them.  It will be time to give up.  There should be no talk of reruns, no attempts to finesse the negotiations to…

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Leave’s major advantage in the last three weeks of the campaign. The Tory press is on their side

Leave’s major advantage in the last three weeks of the campaign. The Tory press is on their side

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The Sun front page from last Friday, after another poor set of net immigration figures for Cameron This referendum could boil down to Cameron v The Tory Press. If Cameron prevails, it could be good news for Corbyn. One of the most fascinating aspects of this referendum campaign is a Tory PM and most of the Tory Press being on opposite sides. As Neil Kinnock and Ed Miliband can attest the press can very brutal. Whilst I don’t subscribe to…

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Remain appear to be winning the ground war but looks like Leave are winning the twitter war

Remain appear to be winning the ground war but looks like Leave are winning the twitter war

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Who is winning the EU referendum ground war? https://t.co/xxesPrwhy9 pic.twitter.com/WksVrowXTu — Matt Goodwin (@GoodwinMJ) June 1, 2016 Matthew Goodwin has done some analysis and finds “The EU Referendum Events Project at the Universities of Kent and Nottingham, which is mapping campaign events in real time, shows Remain is far more active than Leave, the bulk of the activity on both sides is concentrated on London, and Brexit backers have yet to target northern England, which should be fertile ground for Eurosceptics.” Meanwhile over on twitter Twitter have…

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