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Category: EU matters

Deal done – and combined with LEAVE’s Galloway error of judgment, it might be enough

Deal done – and combined with LEAVE’s Galloway error of judgment, it might be enough

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The initiative swings back to Remain But for Tony Marlow’s blazer, Michael Portillo might have ended up prime minister rather than a rail-hopping TV presenter. To have done so, he needed John Redwood to do sufficiently well in the first round of the Conservative Party leadership election against John Major. Redwood, however, never really recovered from his initial press conference when he “was lost in a mass of eccentric jackets and lime-green silk”, as Major put it. That one press…

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As the crucial Brussels talks go into day 2 it’s far from clear that Cameron will get a deal

As the crucial Brussels talks go into day 2 it’s far from clear that Cameron will get a deal

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Today should determine whether the referendum will be on June 23rd Once again all eyes will be on Brussels as Cameron seeks to get an EU deal that he’s confident will be sellable in the referendum. Judging by the reporting in some of the press he has some way to go and it might be that this ends today without agreement. In that situation there will have to be more talks at a later date and it is going to…

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Germany’s inherited war-shame is in danger of eating itself

Germany’s inherited war-shame is in danger of eating itself

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But the consequences of Merkel’s madness will be felt Europe-wide Germany paid a heavy price for the world wars. Only during Angela Merkel’s chancellorship were the loans for WWI reparations finally paid off. That cost, however, pales into insignificance compared with the legacy of the second War. The human and material losses were of course disastrous but perhaps the most lasting legacy was psychological: the national shame of the past and the consequent and reflexive determination – craving, even –…

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British politics 2016 in one word: Europe

British politics 2016 in one word: Europe

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One issue; three interlinking components Can 2016 live up to the excitement that last year gave us? Remarkably, it could. Internationally, the extremely interesting year-long elections in the US may well produce the first female president of the United States (albeit the wife of a former president), and if not, could well put an untested populist with no political experience in the White House. But in Britain, one issue is likely to dominate: the European referendum on David Cameron’s deal…

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Lord Ashcroft polling is back with a 20k sample EURef survey

Lord Ashcroft polling is back with a 20k sample EURef survey

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An unusual voting question approach was used so difficult to make comparisons @LordAshcroft #EUref poll didn't ask simple question but this – pic.twitter.com/XEEvw4dWyV — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) December 16, 2015 The past 24 hours has seen a glut of EU referendum polling with the latest, overnight, being a 20k sample online poll from Lord Ashcroft. Lord Ashcroft’s post on the survey, linked to above, is well worth reading because it goes into far more than just referendum voting intention. On…

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Nick Palmer: Why Angela Merkel is going to remain as German Chancellor

Nick Palmer: Why Angela Merkel is going to remain as German Chancellor

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She’s got staying power A regular feature of PB in recent weeks has been predictions that Chancellor Angela Merkel’s position is becoming increasingly untenable and either she will need to resign or the CDU poll rating will collapse. At one level, this seems borne out by the polls – Merkel’s popularity is down to 49%, still enviable by British standards but far below her historical average. This is not just important for Germany: widely seen as Europe’s most prominent national…

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So far punters are putting their money on an EU Referendum REMAIN

So far punters are putting their money on an EU Referendum REMAIN

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This is a chart that we’ll see a lot over the coming months as we get closer to the election day in the EU referendum. My plan is to update it regularly showing changes so we can see how gambling sentiment is changing. As of 3.10 am this morning the total wagered on the Betfar Exchange was £136,420 so we are starting to observe a degree of liquidity in the market. If the Scottish IndyRef is anything to go by…

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