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Category: EU matters

EdM’s oppositon to an EU referendum could ensure that LD switchers are kept on board

EdM’s oppositon to an EU referendum could ensure that LD switchers are kept on board

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How the millions of Lib Dem to LAB switchers have made Miiband’s party’s supporter base more pro-EU. twitter.com/MSmithsonPB/st… — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) January 25, 2013 Henry G Manson: Marginal voters matters more This week’s stance taken by Labour on the EU caused some surprise among one or two folk. The Guardian reported that some Labour MPs were twitchy about it. Many of them had tactical concerns that Labour would appear that it was effectively not trusting the public. That is…

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Mapping the CON polling bounce following the Cameron EU veto at 0400 Dec 9th 2011

Mapping the CON polling bounce following the Cameron EU veto at 0400 Dec 9th 2011

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Dave’s veto bounce with YouGov on 09/12/11. It happened at 0400 during fieldwork for Dec 8/9.See chart. twitter.com/MSmithsonPB/st… — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) January 24, 2013 Correctly there has been a lot of discussion over the timing of the fieldwork for today’s YouGov and I thought it useful to look at what happened on the night of the Cameron EU veto Dec 8/9 2011. Fieldwork for the poll began on the evening before as per usual and continued the following day….

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LAB lead moves up 2 points to 12 percent in first post-speech polling

LAB lead moves up 2 points to 12 percent in first post-speech polling

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LAB lead 12% in first post Cameron EU speech daily poll CON 31(nc): LAB 43(+2): LD 11(-1):Ukip 10(nc). twitter.com/MSmithsonPB/st… — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) January 24, 2013 We need to wait till weekend before getting proper picture If YouGov were following their usual pattern fieldwork would have started at 5pm on Tuesday evening and continued until 5pm yesterday. We do not know what proportion of the sample was before and afterwards and whether there was any difference in the response pattern….

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The Cameron EU speech: Michael Ashcroft gives his verdict

The Cameron EU speech: Michael Ashcroft gives his verdict

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Michael Ashcroft says the more they talk about EU the less likely the Tories have got of a Gen Elect victory twitter.com/MSmithsonPB/st… — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) January 23, 2013 Is he right about the dangers for his party? This is from his blog – Lord Ashcroft polls:- “..As I found in my research published last month, Europe is not much of a priority even for those who say they might vote UKIP; the EU is just one of the (many)…

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If other pollsters follow YouGov with their EU referendum polling then it could change the whole nature of the debate

If other pollsters follow YouGov with their EU referendum polling then it could change the whole nature of the debate

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An extended chart showing all YouGov EU referendum polling since last May’s local elections twitter.com/MSmithsonPB/st… — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) January 20, 2013 The bookies tighten the odds on a “remain” outcome Until this morning those pressing for an in/out EU referendum have been buoyed by their almost certain belief, supported by the polling, that the outcome would be a vote to leave All they had to do was to get agreement on a referendum and all would move their way…

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David Herdson asks: Is the Euro-crisis over?

David Herdson asks: Is the Euro-crisis over?

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And if so, where does that leave Cameron’s big speech? For something that neither starts nor ends, an economic crisis can be a pretty potent thing. Or to refine that assertion, it’s obvious when the crisis is in full swing but it’s impossible to say when it’s started or when it’s ended; they just emerge or build, and decline or fade. This time last year, there was huge doubt over whether Greece would default, whether Italy or Spain would need…

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EdM, Dave and Nick should all be happy with first 2014 Euro elections poll

EdM, Dave and Nick should all be happy with first 2014 Euro elections poll

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LAB set to double 2009 vote share according to first 2014 Euro election poll. Ukip up but in 3rd place behind CON twitter.com/MSmithsonPB/st… — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) January 7, 2013 Survation has UKIP up on 2009 but down to 3rd place My chart shows the findings of the weekend’s Survation poll on the 2014 Euro elections and compares the vote shares from June 2009 when the elections were last held. Then was very much a low point for the Brown…

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UKIP, the European elections in 2014 and beyond

UKIP, the European elections in 2014 and beyond

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In the Survation poll for the Mail on Sunday, one of the supplementary questions asked about voting intentions in the 2014 European Parliament elections, UKIP are on the threshold of pushing the Conservatives into third place, the full results are below. Conservatives 24% Labour 31% Lib Dem 11% UKIP 22% Paddy Power have a market on which party will be the Largest UK party in European Parliament after the 2014 elections. Paddy Power are currently offering 3/1 on UKIP being the largest…

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