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Category: EU matters

David Herdson says “Britain’s EU exit is now when, not if”

David Herdson says “Britain’s EU exit is now when, not if”

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The Juncker class are the problem not the solution The nomination of Jean-Claude Juncker as next EU Commission President has moved Britain substantially closer to leaving the Union.  On the one hand, Britain was marginalised in a process that has traditionally been built on consensus; on the other, the attitude of the Euro-elite – including Juncker – to the European Parliament election results has been to ignore the opposition to the EU direction of travel and carry on as normal….

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The Cameron-EU stand-off over Jean-Claude Juncker: If the PM wins it would be a major coup

The Cameron-EU stand-off over Jean-Claude Juncker: If the PM wins it would be a major coup

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As the Juncker decision gets closer a great story & pic in the @Telegraph pic.twitter.com/LoJWCn4VHA — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) June 27, 2014 But if he fails then where does that leave Dave? Until now the row over Jean-Claude Juncker has made Cameron look increasingly isolated in Europe. What’s not generally appreciated in the UK is that in most other EU countries the recent European Parliament elections were presented as being about choosing the EU president as well as MEPs. Each…

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Christine Lagarde is 4-1 to be next President of the European Commission

Christine Lagarde is 4-1 to be next President of the European Commission

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The battle for Presidency of the EU is hotting up Yesterday it was reported by Reuters that: German Chancellor Angela Merkel has asked France whether it would be willing to put forward International Monetary Fund chief Christine Lagarde as president of the European Commission, two French sources briefed on the exchanges said. They said Merkel, Europe’s most powerful political leader, made the inquiry in a private conversation with French President Francois Hollande after European Parliament elections characterised by widespread anti-EU…

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Checking the Political Weather in Wales

Checking the Political Weather in Wales

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Results of the May Welsh Political Barometer In 2009 the Conservatives were the big success story of the European elections in Wales, topping the poll in a Welsh national election for the first time in over a century (I haven’t been able to track down an earlier occurrence, Labour has topped every poll since 1918 when the Coalition Liberals stormed to victory under David Lloyd George). This was mainly down to Labour’s nosedive (down 12.2 points since 2004) rather than…

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Corporeal on The Passion of the Ukippers

Corporeal on The Passion of the Ukippers

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As Mike noted at the time the latest round of 2014Euro polls came back with a pretty wide range of results, ranging from UKIP leading by 11 points with ComRes, down to ICM putting them in 3rd and 4 points off the top. So I did a little digging. What I think is causing at least the main part of the disparity is how the different pollsters treat certainty to vote responses. ICM operate a weighting system based on a…

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Ipsos-MORI finds support for staying in the EU at its highest level since before the 1992 ERM crisis

Ipsos-MORI finds support for staying in the EU at its highest level since before the 1992 ERM crisis

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In an EU referendum would you vote to STAY or LEAVE – @IpsosMORI trend 1977 to May 2014 pic.twitter.com/P0DQFcL4di — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) May 16, 2014 Is opinion being influenced by the Scottish uncertainty? One of the great things about Ipsos-MORI is that it has been carrying out political polling in the UK for longer than anyone and has extraordinary records. This means that it can put things into context. Ahead of next Thursday’s Euro election it has put out…

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First post Easter Euros poll sees almost no change

First post Easter Euros poll sees almost no change

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The LDs back in double figures This morning’s Sun sees the first post holiday weekend Euros poll from YouGov and the only changes on the the last survey are all within the margin of error. LAB no change, UKIP and CON both down one with the LDs back up one at 10%. Clegg’s party will be relieved that the negative reaction to the debates with Farage seem to be fading and that a 10% share should not produce the wipe…

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The Scottish IndyRef totally dominates current political betting activity with virtually no interest in the May 22 Euros

The Scottish IndyRef totally dominates current political betting activity with virtually no interest in the May 22 Euros

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Do punters think that May 22 is not very important? One of the great things about the Betfair exchange is the amount of data that’s available on each of its markets. The chart above is of the total amount of matched bets in £ on the current live UK election markets. As can be seen both the GE 2015 markets, which have been up for nearly four years, attract a lot of interest but not on the scale of the…

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