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Category: Ed Miliband

Henry G Manson says get on Andy Burnham as EdM’s successor – it might be a good bet

Henry G Manson says get on Andy Burnham as EdM’s successor – it might be a good bet

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Andy Burnham the overwhelming leader in latest @LabourList shadow cabinet rankings pic.twitter.com/B6kaB8p8qi — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) July 18, 2014 Longstanding PBers will know that Henry G Manson’s has a great record with his tips on anything to do with LAB. He was dead right on EdM in 2010 and his guidance has proved pretty good over the years. This morning he emailed me to suggest that Andy Burnham was a great bet for next LAB leader. He cited as evidence…

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Why Blairites like John Rentoul have got to stop looking at GE2015 through the prism of 1997

Why Blairites like John Rentoul have got to stop looking at GE2015 through the prism of 1997

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From the recent @LordAshcroft CON-LAB marginals poll: Miliband's most enthusiastic backers – LD-LAB switchers pic.twitter.com/NJ6f8TaN7W — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) July 14, 2014 It’s a totally different election with very different dynamics There’s no doubt that Tony Blair’s GE1997 victory, coming as it did after four election defeats over the previous 18 years, was a stunning success. Blair did it by reinventing his party so it would appeal to large swaithes of voters who never before had done anything other than…

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EdM might not be polling well at the moment but the idea that David M would have done better is fanciful rubbish.

EdM might not be polling well at the moment but the idea that David M would have done better is fanciful rubbish.

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Quite simply David M showed he was crap at politics I was very taken by this comment from Edmund in Tokyo on the previous thread on why David Miliband would not have been the winner that his protagonists say he would:- 1) David Miliband wouldn’t have been able to bury the Iraq episode like Ed has. It would have been a serious ongoing problem, even worse as Iraq falls apart, and crippled his ability to win over the 2010 LibDems…

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Labour in Newark: Ruthless or wrongheaded?

Labour in Newark: Ruthless or wrongheaded?

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Soft-pedalling the campaign is a sign of both weakness and strength Conventional wisdom says that general elections are won or lost based on the decisions of a few tens of thousands of swing voters across the country’s marginal seats.  As an assertion, it was never entirely true – those voters made next to no difference in 1983 or 1997 for example – but in an increasingly fractured party system, the assumptions on which it rests become more and more questionable….

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Guest Slot: All publicity is good publicity? Maybe not when Ed Miliband is on TV

Guest Slot: All publicity is good publicity? Maybe not when Ed Miliband is on TV

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UK General Elections, we are told have become increasingly presidential. And how each party leader comes across, particularly on Television, is important. Ed Miliband has faced criticism for his style and communication skills – It’s probably fair to comment that he’s not a natural TV performer. But what if it’s slightly worse than that? What if his television appearances have, overall, a slight negative effect on Labour’s vote share in the polls? We should look at the evidence – What…

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One Year To Go: How do Dave and Ed compare to their predecessors

One Year To Go: How do Dave and Ed compare to their predecessors

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With one year to go, I thought it would be useful to track how Ed and Dave compare to their predecessors one year before a General Election. I’ve been using the ratings from Ipsos-Mori that go back nearly forty years and are considered to be the Gold Standards of leader ratings.     Looking at the Leader of the Opposition net ratings, sometimes the figures speak for themselves. Only Leaders of the Opposition  with net positive ratings one year have…

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It looks like mentioning Ed’s name is no longer a drag for Labour

It looks like mentioning Ed’s name is no longer a drag for Labour

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  As part of their polling for The Times, YouGov asked “Imagine that at the next election the party leaders remained David Cameron for the Conservatives, Ed Miliband for Labour and Nick Clegg for the Liberal Democrats. How would you vote?” Normally they ask “If there were a general election tomorrow, which party would you vote for? Conservative, Labour, Liberal Democrat, Scottish Nationalist/Plaid cymru, some other party, would not vote, don’t know” Now the first thing that caught my eye…

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Guest Slot: Rod Crosby: The bell tolls for Labour and Miliband

Guest Slot: Rod Crosby: The bell tolls for Labour and Miliband

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Last week Labour beat the Tories in the local elections by just 1%, according to the Rallings and Thrasher NEV (national equivalent voteshare) calculation. This is the last set of locals before the general election. Is there anything we can divine from this performance? Yes, it looks like Labour will be soundly defeated next year. The following graph tells the tale (general elections bordered in white). We see that, going back to 1979, no party with such a minuscule lead…

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