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Category: Ed Miliband

Lord Ashcroft corrects his Doncaster N poll – EdM NOT in danger from UKIP in Doncaster North

Lord Ashcroft corrects his Doncaster N poll – EdM NOT in danger from UKIP in Doncaster North

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How the correction and apology to Edm appears of @LordAshcroft site pic.twitter.com/vpduUXqvlE — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) December 1, 2014 CORRECTED Doncaster N poll from @LordAshcroft CON 13 LAB 54 LD 4 UKIP 25 — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) December 1, 2014 So even if CON tactically vote with UKIP in Doncaster N then EdM would have 18% lead. REVISED @LordAshcroft polll — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) December 1, 2014 This post will be updated when this week’s Ashcroft national poll is published This week's @LordAshcroft…

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David Herdson on Saturday: Harriet Harman could become LAB’s Michael Howard?

David Herdson on Saturday: Harriet Harman could become LAB’s Michael Howard?

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The risks of an election can be avoided by not holding one Sixty thousand tweets of support for Ed Miliband this last week may have put a dampener on speculation about his leadership survival prospects, though not as much as the definitive statement from Alan Johnson ruling himself out of any future contest. For all the goodwill in the country, those who have the Labour leader’s future in their hands remain the MPs and shadow ministers at Westminster. For the…

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Labour insider, Henry G Manson, on the changed mood within the movement about EdM

Labour insider, Henry G Manson, on the changed mood within the movement about EdM

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The leader renews his vows with the party & role as underdog The grassroots response to Ed Miliband’s recent leadership uncertainties showed more enthusiasm for his leadership than at any other time – including at the point of his election. While certain MPs were wobbling, the party’s foot soldiers and supporters were bashing out 60,000 tweets of support. Yes, Labour folk are suckers for an underdog, but this felt different. There were reasons why they backed him. The stance on…

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Leading psephologist argues that likeability ratings are better predictor of voting behaviour than “best leader” questions

Leading psephologist argues that likeability ratings are better predictor of voting behaviour than “best leader” questions

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Essex Uni psephologist Prof Paul Whiteley argues that EdM not far behind DC on likeability http://t.co/xch2fvo90D pic.twitter.com/1iXsXb3d82 — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) November 9, 2014 On this measure Ed is not far behind One of the issues that the current Ed Miliband issue has brought out is what are the best form of leader ratings. Prof Paul Whiteley, of University of Essex who ran BPIX, posted an interesting article last night suggesting that some of the standard measures like “best leader” might…

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If the Miliband rumblings haven’t quietened down after the weekend then he could be in trouble

If the Miliband rumblings haven’t quietened down after the weekend then he could be in trouble

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Watch: New Statesman editor Jason Cowley defends the magazine's criticism of Ed Miliband #SkyNewsTonight http://t.co/y2rClEeNR3 — Sky News Tonight (@SkyNewsTonight) November 6, 2014 This article by the New Statesman's Editor has played big part in bringing LAB's Ed Miliband issue to a head. http://t.co/PlZNBPDE95 — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) November 7, 2014 What seems to have set this off – a New Statesman article Looking over the past couple of days the trigger for the Miliband leadership speculation appears to have…

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Survation poll for the Mirror showing LAB 4% ahead could take some of the pressure off Ed

Survation poll for the Mirror showing LAB 4% ahead could take some of the pressure off Ed

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UKIP now within just 3% of the Tories Although Survation has become a major part of the UK polling scene since GE10 its standard Westminster voting surveys are only a small part of its output. Today, however, there’s a new poll for the Daily Mirror which could provide some relief for the Ed Miliband camp under siege after a day of leadership speculation. The 4% LAB margin is the biggest in any poll since YouGov recorded a 7% lead nearly…

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Richard Nabavi asks Would Ed face a coup a few months after a Labour victory?

Richard Nabavi asks Would Ed face a coup a few months after a Labour victory?

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Please note this piece was written before the recent polling putting the Tories ahead If the voting in the next General Election reflects current opinion polling, Ed Miliband will become Prime Minister next May. Of course, the Conservatives are hopeful that the polls will shift before then, but, as things stand today, the possibility of a Labour-led government, either in a hung parliament or with a small majority, is certainly a very real one. The betting marketscurrently make it around a…

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