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Category: Economy

Fingering the index. A proposed technical change that is hugely important

Fingering the index. A proposed technical change that is hugely important

Sir David Norgrove, Chair of @ukstatsauth, said: "We welcome the Chancellor’s intention to consult on resolving current issues with the RPI. We continue to urge the Government and others to cease to use the RPI." https://t.co/PmxWytJkal — Office for National Statistics (ONS) (@ONS) September 4, 2019 There was some important news this week. You probably missed it in all the nonsense about Brexit. It is quite boring but that doesn’t excuse you from the responsibility of knowing about it. This news…

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What will the UK interest rate be at the end of 2019?

What will the UK interest rate be at the end of 2019?

I really don’t know much about economics and the intricacies of how and interest rates are set by the Bank of England, looking at this market from Paddy Power is a bit like pinning the tail on the donkey for me. My theory on this market is that is Project Fear turns out to be very close to Project Reality then Sterling will seriously and quickly tank as we head to No Deal. The only time I can remember a…

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Trump and the inverted yield curve

Trump and the inverted yield curve

    President Trump would seem to have an advantage over whoever the Democrats select as his 2020 challenger: since the Second World War, nine elected presidents have sought a second term, and seven of them succeeded. The two exceptions were Jimmy Carter in 1980, and George H. W. Bush in 1992. In both cases, the US economy was performing badly in the lead-up to the election. US voters seem to be indulgent towards their incumbent presidents, but less so…

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Meanwhile in other news

Meanwhile in other news

More than 175,000 jobs will be lost from struggling high street stores over the next year as the boom in internet shopping hastens their decline, researchers predict https://t.co/NvhwLmDTW3 — The Times (@thetimes) January 22, 2019 What’s happening on the High Street & other developments This month, the newspapers, television, radio and social media have been consumed by Brexit. You might have noticed. In other news, Marks & Spencer have announced the closure of another 17 branches. Patisserie Valerie has gone…

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Sales tacks. What to do with the high street holes caused by shop closures

Sales tacks. What to do with the high street holes caused by shop closures

Debenhams, House of Fraser, Homebase and more – this is the grim story of the UK high street so far this yearhttps://t.co/UhZU4a9v0E — Manchester News MEN (@MENnewsdesk) October 25, 2018 This has been a torrid time for many retailers. Every week brings news of another familiar high street shop on the skids. House of Fraser, Toys R Us, Maplins, Poundworld and Gaucho have all gone bust. Many household name chains are closing stores at a rate of knots. Rumours abound of big names struggling. …

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The persistence of lack of memory. How the state retirement age was changed and communicated

The persistence of lack of memory. How the state retirement age was changed and communicated

Old sins have long shadows. The equalisation of state pension age was first mooted in the early 1990s and was enacted in 1995. Yet it remains controversial now. The action group WASPI campaigned in the last general election and that campaign arguably made the difference in some marginals.  Theresa May might conceivably have got an overall majority if it had not been for their efforts and the whole course of Britain’s departure from the EU, among other things, might have been radically different….

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Footing the bill. The challenges for freespending politicians

Footing the bill. The challenges for freespending politicians

I like big buts and I cannot lie.  If I am presented with a rosy apple, I look for the worm.  If I’m covered with dark clouds, I look for the silver lining.  I’m that guy who likes to say “I think you’ll find it’s a bit more complicated than that”.  I’m unapologetic: it usually is more complicated than that. Sometimes, however, important simple truths are hiding in plain sight.  Hercule Poirot noted that on one occasion he could not…

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A new furrow. The changing nature of work and what that might mean for the future

A new furrow. The changing nature of work and what that might mean for the future

Imagine, if you will, that you are a horse. Take that extra step and imagine that you’re a horse capable of reasoning, a Houyhnhnm if you will. As you stand in your stable at the end of the day, imagine you are reflecting on your species’ relationship with humans. It got off to a poor start, with humans seeing you as a food source. Fortunately, humans in general saw greater possibilities in you, learning that you could be a far…

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