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Category: WHITE HOUSE RACE

At what stage will we know that Obama has won?

At what stage will we know that Obama has won?

To help you plan your party – Harry Hayfield guides us hour by hour A fortnight tonight the whole world will be watching the American nation and throughout the UK election night parties are being planned. But what about the timings and when we will know the result? To guide you Mike has suggested that I produce this run-down – hour-by-hour. 11.00pm GMT November 4th 2008 (IN, KY) Now, in any ordinary election, the states of Indiana and Kentucky would…

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Was someone manipulating the markets?

Was someone manipulating the markets?

Was this political manoevering or simply very bad betting? One of the best sources for anyone interested in US politics, Congressional Quarterly, is running with a story that a single, unnamed punter has been responsible for the pricing anomaly on InTrade that has seen John McCain’s stock hold a higher price than on Betfair, or the Iowa Electronic Markets. Apparently, the ‘institutional’ investor purchased hundreds of thousands of dollars’ worth of McCain contracts, at inferior prices than were available elsewhere,…

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Fancy your chances on this innovative US market?

Fancy your chances on this innovative US market?

Peter the Punter on the “McCain Firewall Finder Ladbrokes have of late become rather more innovative with their political betting markets. No doubt the credit goes to their politics expert, PB regular Matthew Shaddick [Shadsy]. He has come up with an intriguing angle on the US Presidency. The main contest looks pretty moribund now from a betting perspective and most of the value has been drained from the individual States in the Electoral Votes markets. Shadsy has livened things up…

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Is “Joe the Plumber’s” story starting to unravel?

Is “Joe the Plumber’s” story starting to unravel?

Should the McCain team have vetted their new star? In the tough world of the American election only eighteen days before polling anything that might be seen to give an advantage to one candidate or another is immediately picked over and studied to the nth degree to see if it is what it says it is. Twenty four hours ago the big plus for the Republicans in the final presidential debate was “Joe the Plumber” who had confronted Obama last…

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Will it be another gaffe-free performance from Obama?

Will it be another gaffe-free performance from Obama?

So here we are – the final debate of the 2008 US Presidential Election which is taking place at Hofstra University in Hempstead, Long Island. Although tonight the main focus on the economy the big question is whether, even at this late stage, John McCain can force Obama into an error that could change the race. If the junior senator from Illinois survives then he could become an even hotter favourite than he already is. A Politico analysis summed it…

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Can the PB community get the US election right?

Can the PB community get the US election right?

In recent weeks several members of the PB community have been keeping score-cards of the state polling and have been making projections of what is going to happen on November 4th in the 2008 Presidential election. So let’s widen this out. The last time we ran an election prediction survey was on the Glasgow East by election and, unlike the so called panel “experts and insiders ” at Politics Home, we got the result spot on. Lets try to do…

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Can McCain get voters to like him in the final debate?

Can McCain get voters to like him in the final debate?

Should we believe a word the instant pundits say on the night? The general view of the pundits after the first presidential debate last month was that McCain had probably won. He’d made his arguments better and many of the “experts” were ready to pronounce him the instant winner. That’s not how it played out in the polls and since that first encounter the movement has all been one way – to the young black Senator from Illinois. Almost the…

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Is this the key moment of the campaign?

Is this the key moment of the campaign?

click on the panel to watch Will voters look at McCain differently after standing up to the crowd? Just watch the video above and you’ll see what I believe is a key moment of the campaign and one that will raise respect for John McCain in many quarters irrespective of whether he wins or loses. There’s a good account of it here, as well, on the Time magazine blog. Facing a crowd who were overwhelming hostile to the black Senator…

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