David Herdson on why he’s yet to be convinced Ted Cruz can feel a little hard done by. It was he, after all, who won the Iowa caucus, beating Donald Trump, the reports of the pollsters, and indeed everyone else. Normally, that would be enough to fire him into the media spotlight as the man with the momentum. Not this time. The ‘momentum’ badge has instead been awarded to Florida senator, Marco Rubio. Although he finished only third in Iowa,…
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. @ppppolls reporting that 1st day of fieldwork for their next GOP national nomination poll finds support for Trump slipping sharply — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) February 3, 2016 On Monday Trump was a 50% shot on Betfair to be Republican nominee. That's now 23.5% pic.twitter.com/4wKemLtmsS — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) February 3, 2016 The US pollster Public Policy Polling has a welcome practice of sending out Tweets like the one above to indicate significant trends in surveys some time before the…
Real Clear Politics New Hampshire polling average Tonight the first real votes will be cast in WH2016 Well we’ve got there at last. After months of speculation, polling and debates, the first state to decide in the long-drawn out nomination process, Iowa, will do so tonight. My guess is that we should be getting the first results in both GOP Democrat races after 2am tomorrow morning. The final polling points to Trump taking the Republican prize and Hillary just pipping Sanders…
From the historically most accurate pollster in this race Des Moines Register Iowa Poll Trump 28% (+6)Cruz 23% (-2)Rubio 15% (+3)Carson 10% (-1)Paul 5% (-)Christie 3% (-) — TSE (@TSEofPB) January 30, 2016 It looks like the attacks on Ted Cruz and the doubts about his eligibilty have had an impact on the Senator from Texas. Whilst the Democratic race is Whilst the Des Moines Register Iowa Poll for the Dems has Clinton 45% (+3)Sanders 42% (+2)O'Malley 3% (-1) —…
Just 3 days to go before voting starts On this week’s PB/Polling Matters podcast Keiran speaks to Will Jordan from YouGov in the U.S. They discuss the state of the 2016 race as it stands, the importance of turnout at next week’s Iowa caucuses (and what that might mean for Trump and Sanders) plus how important Iowa will be for the wider race in such an apparently unconventional election cycle. You can follow Keiran at@keiranpedley and Will at @williamjordann
https://twitter.com/pastfrontrunner/status/692356370159570944 Suffolk University poll has Bernie well ahead in New Hampshire Sanders 50, Clinton 41, O'Malley 2 — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) January 27, 2016 CORRECTIONMonmouth University Iowa Poll Trump 30%,Cruz 23%, Rubio 16% Carson 10%. — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) January 27, 2016 And the poll that I’ll be basing my Iowa bets on… Final Poll coming Saturday evening. Stay tuned. https://t.co/2gfxm6xG5X — J. Ann Selzer (@jaselzer) January 27, 2016
How are caucus voters going to view this? The big overnight WH2016 news is that Donald Trump has pulled out of the final TV debate before voting actually starts in the elongated process to choose the party nominees The Fox News clip above is how the most watched news channel by GOP voters is reporting the decision. This inevitably recalls memories of his spat in August last year with Fox News presenter Megyn Kelly when she sought to take him…