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Category: WHITE HOUSE RACE

Initial WH2016 early voting analysis suggests that fewer Registered Republicans are voting compared with 2012

Initial WH2016 early voting analysis suggests that fewer Registered Republicans are voting compared with 2012

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Early voting in North Carolina The excellent US blog,InsightUS, is providing regular reports and analysis on early voting for the election which takes place four weeks today. In the swing state of North Carolina data is being released by the election board showing how many have early voters have participated so far and this is being compared with what was happening at exactly the same stage in 2012. The post notes:- “..North Carolina’s registered Republicans simply aren’t voting (so far,…

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The Clinton price moves to a record high on Betfair

The Clinton price moves to a record high on Betfair

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Could November 8th still produce a surprise? I’m currently in the red on the next president market. I moved into Trump in late July, saw a big increase in his price, and then failed to cash in before the first debate which, of course, changed the whole narrative. Before it Hillary was starting to sink with one swing state after another seeming to go out of her hands. Then came that first debate and Trump flunked it. The next dramatic…

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YouGov has Clinton winning the debate by 47% to 42%

YouGov has Clinton winning the debate by 47% to 42%

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But there was sizeable gender divide YouGov US post debate poll. Women Clinton by 50% to 38%Men Trump by 46% to 43% pic.twitter.com/kXQ638bA1I — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) October 10, 2016 CNN’s poll gave it to Clinton by bigger margin CNN/ORC INSTANT POLL: Who won the debate? *Clinton: 57%*Trump: 34% pic.twitter.com/kBgMoVVoC7 — Oliver Darcy (@oliverdarcy) October 10, 2016 What exactly is Trump trying to do here while Hillary is answering a question. #debate pic.twitter.com/caXu9ZBVrE — The Darkest Timeline Numbersmuncher (@NumbersMuncher) October…

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Corporeal on the GOP and project Dump Trump

Corporeal on the GOP and project Dump Trump

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Trump hits GOP leadership while campaign struggles to defend him https://t.co/J5GyzUa2wn via @KyleDCheney | Getty pic.twitter.com/kWmW13KERo — POLITICO (@politico) October 9, 2016 The Trump movement, like its spiritual precursor the Tea Party, has always felt like a wave the Republican party establishment has decided to try and ride because they were scared to stand up to it. After losing the 2012 presidential election the RNC commissioned the Growth and Opportunity Project Report (link here) to assess their defeat and map a…

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As we move to the crucial second Trump-Clinton debate the live Betfair betting odds

As we move to the crucial second Trump-Clinton debate the live Betfair betting odds

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Given the uncertainties about Trump punters should read the bookie market rules This is for the £56m next President market on Betfair:- “Who will be elected to be the next President of the United States of America as a result of the 2016 presidential election? This market will be turned in-play at the stated time on the day of the election. Thereafter the market will not be actively managed. Customers are entirely responsible for their bets at all times. This…

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Great (Br)expectations, why Tories don’t want a snap election and the Clinton ’surge’ – this week’s PB/Polling Matters TV Show & Podcast

Great (Br)expectations, why Tories don’t want a snap election and the Clinton ’surge’ – this week’s PB/Polling Matters TV Show & Podcast

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Can TMay really meet what voters are expecting from BREXIT This week Kieran Pedley and his guests, Rob Vance and Matt Singh, on the PB/Polling Matters TV Show & Podcast focus mostly on the Tories and the big issue that looks set to determine whether TMay is successful – the BREXIT negotiations. The polling suggests that people are expecting a lot and is the new PM going to have to disappoint? Then there’s all the talk of a snap election…

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GOP VP Nominee Pence comes out best in the VP debate polls

GOP VP Nominee Pence comes out best in the VP debate polls

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But viewers who watched the basketball made a better TV choice Given how old both Trump and Clinton are then actuarially then the two men who took part in the overnight VP debate have probably got a reasonable chance of becoming President. So although the event will only have attracted a fraction of what Clinton-Trump secured last it is important. It will also get far less post debate coverage. It also put both men in with a chance of being…

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Trump 4% ahead in Ohio. Must be time for the Guardian to repeat its Ohio don’t vote for the Republican stunt

Trump 4% ahead in Ohio. Must be time for the Guardian to repeat its Ohio don’t vote for the Republican stunt

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Guardian Oct 18 2004 The above sets out what turned out to be a misguided attempt by the Guardian ahead of the 2004 Bush Kerry fight to involve its UK readers more closely in the contest. This was in the year after the Iraq war and the paper sought to get readers to write and email to US voters in Clark County in Ohio to express their feelings about the race which, as you can imagine, were strongly anti-Bush. 11k…

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