On his return from the U.S., Keiran Pedley gives us the rundown on what is happening stateside Having spent a few weeks in New Jersey, as I usually do this time of year, it will not come as much of a surprise that the news media there is wall to wall Trump. However, as a keen observer of US politics, I do enjoy being over there and watching the political comings and goings ‘live’ – you can often pick up…
The field is too clogged up with the debris and echoes of 2016 One of the enduring mysteries of political betting is the continuing strength of David Miliband in the Next Labour Leader market. Despite his not having sat in the Commons for four and a half years, despite his showing no inclination to return, despite there being little opportunity to return in the near term, despite his politics now being completely out of line with a Labour Party whose…
Despite Labour voters support for a second referendum on EU membership, the party’s support for Brexit is probably the right policy writes Keiran Pedley. The Conservatives are vulnerable if Theresa May cannot negotiate a deal but not if Labour looks ‘pro-Brussels’. As June the 8th rapidly approaches, many have criticised the Labour Party’s approach to Brexit. With the Prime Minister solidly in favour of a so-called ‘hard Brexit’ and the Liberal Democrats the unapologetic party of Remain, Labour has seemed…
This is scary. When asked by YouGov US 15% of Trump voters responded that pic on the left had more people in it.https://t.co/2gq3dUkl9w pic.twitter.com/uTtII50SGw — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) January 25, 2017 Tweet
Could she be the one to take down Trump? With Trump’s inauguration taking place on Friday there’s been a flurry of betting activity on the newly elected Senator from California, Kamala Harris, for the next White House Race in 2020. This followed a lot of coverage of her part in fighting against Trump’s nominee for attorney general, Sen. Jeff Sessions. In November she became the second black woman and first Indian American elected to serve in the Senate. She’s a…
NYMag.Com Interesting report overnight suggesting that there might have been irregularities in three key states which could turn the election. It is very hard to draw conclusions from this but where votes are cast electronically and there is no paper trail of a ballot paper then the potential for issues and possible hacking will exist. This is one reason why I prefer the British method of ballot papers. The pressure is on all parties to ensure a smooth transition and…
After election night in 2012 Obama was 2% ahead in the popular vote. By January 2013 it reached 3.85% At the 2012 White House Race we had a very special reason on PB to pay close attention to the precise national popular vote numbers in the period after the election. William Hill had offered £1,000 in free bets and the competition was to predict the winning national vote margin to two decimal points. My naive assumption in devising it like…
Embed from Getty Images If the first part of this ramble was about the expanse of this divide, and the second wondered what opened it, this is prodding at how deep it runs through society. As political analysts come out of their bunkers try and grapple with what this election really means (beyond the stark fact of President Donald J Trump). We will hear about the need to understand the flyover states, non college-educated whites. Feelings on globalisation and…