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Category: WHITE HOUSE RACE

The Betfair WH2020 next President Market is about to reach £50 million of bets matched and there are still more than three months till polling day

The Betfair WH2020 next President Market is about to reach £50 million of bets matched and there are still more than three months till polling day

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What having a controversial figure in the White House does to the betting Above is a screenshot of the Betfair market on who will be next president. We’ve talked about the odds on this for well over a year but what is striking this afternoon is how close the total matched is to £50m. That we should get to that sort of total with more than 3 months to go until November 2nd is quite extraordinary and this will almost…

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Kamala Harris edging down in the Dem VP betting with Susan Rice continuing to advance

Kamala Harris edging down in the Dem VP betting with Susan Rice continuing to advance

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Is Joe really going to choose the woman who attacked him? With Joe Biden expected to announce his VP choice within the next fortnight there’s been a lot of movement on the Betfair market where Kamala Harris has edged downwards from a 60%+ chance to a 37% one. A big driver is the money now going on Susan Rice who is now rated on the markets as having a 25% chance. For those wanting more detail on what is currently…

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Ex-US Ambassador to the UN, Susan Rice, continues to be strong in the Dem VP betting with Harris still favourite

Ex-US Ambassador to the UN, Susan Rice, continues to be strong in the Dem VP betting with Harris still favourite

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We could be less than three weeks away from a decision My main political betting activity at the moment is on who Joe Biden is going to choose as his vice presidential nominee. He has to have this in place before the party’s rescheduled convention in middle August but there have been indications that we could know the name by the start of next month. I should state that my record in betting on Vice presidential nominees has over the…

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Pence for Republican VP nominee – what are the chances that he won’t be?

Pence for Republican VP nominee – what are the chances that he won’t be?

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While there’s been a lot of betting activity on Biden’s VP pick (£1.2m so far matched on Betfair) there’s been much less activity on Mike Pence being on the Republican ticket (just £12k) once again in November. He’s currently at 1.11/1.16 on Betfair which might be value for the lay. There are a couple of ways that he’s not in the VP slot. First Trump could pull out of the race and there have been some suggestions that this might…

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As Covid soars to new US peak YouGov polling suggests that Trump is being hurt most amongst those who feel worst affected

As Covid soars to new US peak YouGov polling suggests that Trump is being hurt most amongst those who feel worst affected

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New CBS polling in three big sunbelt states that now look to be highly competitive has found that the more voters are concerned about the virus the more they are likely to support Biden. The three states, Arizona, Florida and Texas have been amongst the worst hit in the resurgence of the pandemic and this is reflected in the polling. In the states Biden is now leading Trump by 6% in Florida, and with highly competitive races in Arizona and in…

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The Lincoln Project’s response to Trump’s pardon of convicted felon Roger Stone

The Lincoln Project’s response to Trump’s pardon of convicted felon Roger Stone

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There’s little doubt that Trump’s pardon of advisor, Roger Stone, only days before he was due to start a prison sentence is a huge moment in this election campaign. He’s not the first President to issue controversial pardons and many remember the final days of Bill Clinton’s terms. But this one really stands out and looks set to play a big part in the coming weeks in the efforts of those who want to stop him being re-elected. The Lincoln…

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Where is the Democratic Tea Party?

Where is the Democratic Tea Party?

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Looking at the changes in the US electorate There is no doubt that President Trump is keen to make the Presidential election a referendum on ‘woke’, on the topping of statues, and on the Democratic party being in hock to a far left faction. And recent did gift him some prize examples, the “awkward squad” of Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez of New York, Ilhan Omar of Minnesota, Ayanna Pressley of Massachusetts, and Rashida Tlaib of Michigan were all elected to the House…

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Biden (77yo) just beating Trump (74yo) as having the mental and physical stamina to be President

Biden (77yo) just beating Trump (74yo) as having the mental and physical stamina to be President

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This polling question is really one of the biggest of the campaign given how old both the presumptive nominees are. What we see in the poll finding here is that Biden just edges it over Trump but not by very much. There have been instances over the past few months when both men have appeared past it and it will be critical for both their chances that there should be no repetition which is widely picked up by the media….

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