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Category: WHITE HOUSE RACE

Gretchen Whitmer, the Governor who got under Trump’s skin, moves up sharply in the Biden VP pick betting

Gretchen Whitmer, the Governor who got under Trump’s skin, moves up sharply in the Biden VP pick betting

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Punters rush to bet on her after reports of secret face to face meeting with Biden In the early days of the Biden VP pick saga Gretchen Whitmer, Governor of the highly marginal state of Michigan, was one of the early favourites. Her state has been one of the worst hit by the pandemic and there was a highly public clash between her and the President after she was said not to have shown enough gratitude to Trump for his…

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Only days away now from the Biden VP choice and it’ll be a huge surprise if it is not Kamala Harris or Susan Rice

Only days away now from the Biden VP choice and it’ll be a huge surprise if it is not Kamala Harris or Susan Rice

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The Democratic convention is due to start, in a virtual form because of the pandemic, on August 17th and the big development in the run up to the opening will be Joe Biden’s choice of running mate. This is currently the most active political betting market and overnight Betfair had ex-US UN Ambassador as a 32% chance with California Senator Kamala Harris hovering just below 50%. These are the only two who are getting the media coverage at the moment…

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Is this the Dem Duo to take on Trump and win back power?

Is this the Dem Duo to take on Trump and win back power?

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On Betfair its Harris 52%, Rice 24% and 7% the field With the Democratic convention due to take place the week after next year its getting very close to the point where Joe Biden announces who will join him on the ticket in the presidential election on November 3rd. As far as punters are concerned this is now a straight choice between the the Californian senator, Kamala Harris and the former Obama aide who worked closely with Biden in the…

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Team Biden now says he won’t be announcing his VP choice until just before the convention

Team Biden now says he won’t be announcing his VP choice until just before the convention

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The screengrab from CBS news above includes just about all the women who have been been linked with being Joe Biden’s running mate for the November 3rd presidential election. There had been hints from Biden team that an announcement could have been made this last weekend but now we hear that we have got to wait. My guess is that it will be deferred until the couple of days before the Democratic convention is due to start on August 18th….

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Some succour for Trump: Exactly four years ago today Betfair punters rated Hillary Clinton’s chances a lot higher than they do Joe Biden’s today

Some succour for Trump: Exactly four years ago today Betfair punters rated Hillary Clinton’s chances a lot higher than they do Joe Biden’s today

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The chart atop this thread is from exactly four years ago showing that Betfair punters were effectively saying Hillary Clinton’s chances of winning the 2016 election were 72%, as we can see in the chart below Biden’s chances are around 62%. I’ve written in the past the terrible predictive abilities of the betting markets when it comes to politics, perhaps we might see that again, after all on election night Hillary Clinton’s chances went north of 90%. Perhaps the value…

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Senior Republicans not enthused by Trump’s postpone the election move

Senior Republicans not enthused by Trump’s postpone the election move

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The only way that Trump’s controversial postpone the election move could become a reality would be if senior Republicans were ready to go along with it. So far that backing seems to be absent. Under the heading “Trump floats a ‘delay’ in the election. None of his usual allies are on board” the New York Times reports that top Republicans quickly rejected the move. Never in the history of the federal elections have we not held an election, and we…

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Joe Biden says his VP choice will be announced in the first week of August

Joe Biden says his VP choice will be announced in the first week of August

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The big news in the Biden VP betting is that the presumptive nominee has said that he’ll reveal in the first week of August who is going to be on the ticket with him. The impact on the betting markets has been to see more money backed on Susan Rice who worked closely with Biden during the eight years of the Obama presidency. She’s the one contender for the slot who has no experience of being a candidate but it…

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We could be just a week away from Biden’s VP pick and the betting’s getting tighter

We could be just a week away from Biden’s VP pick and the betting’s getting tighter

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With Joe Biden totally dominating the next President polls the next big moment in WH2020 looks set to be the announcement of who is to be his running mate. Biden has already made it clear that it will be a woman and a lot of the betting is going on it being an African American. The names seem to come and go and that’s reflected in the betting. What is making this harder is that his campaign is giving lots…

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