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Mapping the CON polling bounce following the Cameron EU veto at 0400 Dec 9th 2011

Mapping the CON polling bounce following the Cameron EU veto at 0400 Dec 9th 2011

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Dave’s veto bounce with YouGov on 09/12/11. It happened at 0400 during fieldwork for Dec 8/9.See chart. twitter.com/MSmithsonPB/st… — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) January 24, 2013 Correctly there has been a lot of discussion over the timing of the fieldwork for today’s YouGov and I thought it useful to look at what happened on the night of the Cameron EU veto Dec 8/9 2011. Fieldwork for the poll began on the evening before as per usual and continued the following day….

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LAB lead moves up 2 points to 12 percent in first post-speech polling

LAB lead moves up 2 points to 12 percent in first post-speech polling

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LAB lead 12% in first post Cameron EU speech daily poll CON 31(nc): LAB 43(+2): LD 11(-1):Ukip 10(nc). twitter.com/MSmithsonPB/st… — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) January 24, 2013 We need to wait till weekend before getting proper picture If YouGov were following their usual pattern fieldwork would have started at 5pm on Tuesday evening and continued until 5pm yesterday. We do not know what proportion of the sample was before and afterwards and whether there was any difference in the response pattern….

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With just hours to go before Dave’s big EU speech the January Ipsos-MORI issues index puts concern about the EU at 6 percent

With just hours to go before Dave’s big EU speech the January Ipsos-MORI issues index puts concern about the EU at 6 percent

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Chart from Ipsos MORI showing long term trend in concern of voters about EU twitter.com/MSmithsonPB/st… — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) January 22, 2013 Mike Smithson For the latest polling and political betting news Follow @MSmithsonPB

Henry G Manson on the argument over the TV debates

Henry G Manson on the argument over the TV debates

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Does Cameron fear Farage? David Cameron has argued that UKIP should effectively be excluded from televised leaders’ debates at the next election. His defence is “the TV debates should be about, you know, the parties that are going to form the government, in my view.” He really will have to do better than this. The Prime Minister gives the impression of defending a cosy cartel of parties (aided by first past the post) that is conspiring against the public. Worst…

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Sunday Times reporting possible threat to Dave’s leadership

Sunday Times reporting possible threat to Dave’s leadership

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Sun Times Dave speculation:Ladbrokes offer 3/1that Dave won’t be CON leader at gen election. bit.ly/c5gpH6 twitter.com/MSmithsonPB/st… — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) January 20, 2013 Sunday Times says “increasing number of CON MPs are privately discussing the possibility” of attempting to unseat Dave before the 2015 — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) January 19, 2013 S Times quotinga” well-placed source” said that up to 17 MPs had now written letters of “no confidence” in Dave — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) January 19, 2013 The Sunday…

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If the bookies are right the chances of an in-out EU referendum look bleak

If the bookies are right the chances of an in-out EU referendum look bleak

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And even if there is the vote will be to remain With two days to go before Dave’s big speech here are some of the latest betting odds with each of the major firms defining it differently. Ladbrokes make it a 4/1 chance that there’ll be an EU Membership Referendum by 2015 with 1/6 that it won’t William Hill make it 7/4 that there’ll be a Referendum in the UK on EU membership before 2020. The firm is also offering…

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EdM, Dave and Nick should all be happy with first 2014 Euro elections poll

EdM, Dave and Nick should all be happy with first 2014 Euro elections poll

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LAB set to double 2009 vote share according to first 2014 Euro election poll. Ukip up but in 3rd place behind CON twitter.com/MSmithsonPB/st… — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) January 7, 2013 Survation has UKIP up on 2009 but down to 3rd place My chart shows the findings of the weekend’s Survation poll on the 2014 Euro elections and compares the vote shares from June 2009 when the elections were last held. Then was very much a low point for the Brown…

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Henry G Manson asks: Can Cameron win ethnic minority votes with candidates alone?

Henry G Manson asks: Can Cameron win ethnic minority votes with candidates alone?

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According to reports yesterday the Conservative Party wants to increase its efforts to woo ethnic voters ahead of the election. This, alongside gay marriage, appears to be the second lesson George Osborne took from the recent US Presidential election. The Independent understands the initial aim seems to be to increase the number of minority parliamentary candidates. Conservatives currently have 11 MPs from an ethnic minority background compared to Labour who have 13. The Liberal Democrats, somewhat incredibly, have zero. It…

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