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Category: CON Leadership

Punters still make a 2018 exit for TMay the favourite but the price edges down a notch

Punters still make a 2018 exit for TMay the favourite but the price edges down a notch

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Betdata.io For the first time in several months British political betting markets have become the most actively traded on the Betfair Exchange politics section. The busiest is the market featured above on which year Theresa May will eventually step down. As can be seen it moved sharply upwards early yesterday morning when news of the David Davis resignation filtered out and since then it’s sort of holding stable though still about four percentage points down on where it was. So…

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PaddyPower clearly doesn’t understand the CON leadership rules

PaddyPower clearly doesn’t understand the CON leadership rules

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If TMay loses a confidence vote then she can’t be a contender It is perhaps not surprising given the scale of the story at the time was but whenever people think of Conservative leadership contests and disposal of incumbents they look back to 1990 when Mrs Thatcher had to depart. Hence that is the only reason, I suggest, that Paddy Power in the latest range of markets following the David Davis resignation have included Theresa May as a potential candidate…

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David Davis quits possibly making a challenge to TMay more likely

David Davis quits possibly making a challenge to TMay more likely

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He was the 4/1 favourite for next exit The big UK political news overnight is that the BrexSec and former favourite to succeed TMay, David Davis, has resigned as a minister following his disagreement with the PM’s approach to Brexit. Another of his ministers, Steve Baker, has gone with him. This plunges the party into its biggest crisis since Mrs. May failed to hang onto to the Tory majority in June last year. The move happened just before midnight and…

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There signs are that TMay might have to face a confidence motion in the next few days

There signs are that TMay might have to face a confidence motion in the next few days

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Sources confirm letters calling for vote of confidence in @theresa_may leadership going in to @Graham__Brady, chair of 1922. Tory Brexiters very unhappy – accuse PM of traducing those who voted to leave EU. This appears to be spontaneous, not coralled by ERG & @Jacob_Rees_Mogg — Robert Peston (@Peston) July 8, 2018 So far Peston hasn’t moved the PM exit betting ITV’s Political Editor, Robert Preston, is Tweeting that there might be a confidence move about to take place against TMay….

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On this big day let’s remember Ken Clarke’s assessment of TMay just before she won the leadership

On this big day let’s remember Ken Clarke’s assessment of TMay just before she won the leadership

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The “bloody difficult woman” is tough for all sides to deal with One of the great nuggets that came out of the post Brexit referendum CON leadership contest was the above unguarded conversation between Ken Clarke and Malcolm Rifkind captured by Sky News when they thought the cameras were off them. Clarke’s descriptions of some of the leading figures who will be battling it out at Chequers today appear to be spot on particularly his observations on the woman who…

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Sajid Javid becomes the fifth CON MP to be favourite to succeed TMay since GE2017

Sajid Javid becomes the fifth CON MP to be favourite to succeed TMay since GE2017

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Chart Betdata.io Rees-Mogg now down to 3rd favourite There’s been some movement in the Betfair’s next CON leader market following the pulication at the weekend of the latest ConHome survey of party members. The big news there was that the Home Secretary, Sajid Javid, is now the favoured choice of CON members who partipate in ConHome surveys. This has had a big impact on the betting with Javid now jumping about Gove into the favourite slot. At least now the…

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Former long-standing favourite to succeed TMay, Moggsy now down in third place in the betting

Former long-standing favourite to succeed TMay, Moggsy now down in third place in the betting

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Betdata.io More movement on the betting market on who will succeed TMay. For a long period over the past nine months the favourite has been the multi-millionaire who has never been a minister, Jacob Rees-Mogg. The strong pro-Brexiteer who attracted a lot of media attention has been slipping out of favour with punters as can be seen in the chart. He follows fellow old Etonican, “fuck Business” Boris who previously was the long-term favourite. The one unknown with this market…

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Suddenly Tory cabinet indiscipline moves to the top of the political agenda

Suddenly Tory cabinet indiscipline moves to the top of the political agenda

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Is Tory discipline on the verge of breaking down? https://t.co/ELqftPoehk — BBC Politics (@BBCPolitics) June 26, 2018 Maybe it was BoJo that started it but very quickly we are seeing leading cabinet figures seeking to set the agenda away from the principle of cabinet collective responsibility. This could be very dangerous for TMay who clearly does not feel she has the strength to sack the rebels. With DefSec, Gavin Williamson, demanding zillions extra for defence the Chief Secretary to the…

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