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Category: CON Leadership

The real weakness of the threats of PM Corbyn is that many LAB MPs don’t like the idea either

The real weakness of the threats of PM Corbyn is that many LAB MPs don’t like the idea either

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Well, it would certainly encourage a lot of Labour MPs to support her — John Rentoul (@JohnRentoul) October 11, 2018 With TMay seemingly in a total mess trying to maintain support for her Brexit plans while now being opposed by the Brextremists and the DUP lots of speculative scenarios are being played out. James Forsyth in an interesting Speccie post linked to above raises one one scenario with the risk of PM Corbyn being just about the final argument that…

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Punters now make it a 57% chance that TMay will be out next year

Punters now make it a 57% chance that TMay will be out next year

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There’s been more movement on the TMay exit year market on Betfair as seen in the Betdata.io chart. The 57% that next year is now rated is a record high and reflects the view that she’ll hang on until the UK is out of the EU at the end of March and then she’ll stand aside. But will she? That she is still in Number 10 today is a remarkable achievement given that last year she took the advice from…

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How the next CON leader betting market has moved since last year’s Conference

How the next CON leader betting market has moved since last year’s Conference

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A Mr. Johnson still favourite but Javid very close I love these historical charts of Betfair trades from Betdata.io and they are particularly interesting when you have events like the party conferences. The man I’m working hard not to call just by his first name is still there in the favourite slot but the big gainers during the year have been the Home Secretary, Sajid Javid, and the BrexSec, Dominic Raab. Both got promotions since the 2017 conference. I’ve never…

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Both main party leaders have seen their ratings decline since the last conference season – Corbyn’s more May’s

Both main party leaders have seen their ratings decline since the last conference season – Corbyn’s more May’s

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Corbyn needs to turn things round for LAB to have a chance The end of the Party Conference season is a good time to look back at the past year through the prism of the Ipsos MORI leader satisfaction ratings. This is part of the longest running polling series in the UK and is now in its fifth decade. As can be seen from the chart both leaders have experienced a marked decline in the levels of satisfaction over the…

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The sum of all fears

The sum of all fears

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Nobody kicks a dead dog, Dale Carnegie noted.  Based on that observation, we can conclude two things from the Conservative party conference.  First, the government is very fearful that a fresh referendum is a runner.  And secondly, Boris Johnson remains a serious and potent threat.  Speaker after speaker at the Conservative party conference lined up to launch an attack on one or other of these. The Prime Minister is at the head of the queue.  She has gone out of…

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Boris got a leadership betting lift from his speech but he’s now back at a 13% chance

Boris got a leadership betting lift from his speech but he’s now back at a 13% chance

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Betdata.io With all the focus on Johnson’s big speech at the Conservative conference it was inevitable that punters would look to his leadership chances and start risking their money. Well the chart shows the prices on the Betfair Exchange over the past 48 hours and as can be seen there was a lift when he moved up to a 16% chance but that slipped back as betting interest evaporated and now it’s at a 13% chance. To put that into…

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With his corn field jape Boris seems to be trying to validate the 57% of voters who say would he “make poor leader”

With his corn field jape Boris seems to be trying to validate the 57% of voters who say would he “make poor leader”

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Boris Johnson 'trolls' Theresa May by running through 'field of wheat' https://t.co/8ys3sebgJk — Sky News (@SkyNews) October 1, 2018 Blow for Boris's leadership hopes in YouGov/Times poll. 57%, more than any other contender, think he'd be a poor leader,. Gove has negative rating of 56%, Hunt 47%, Rees-Mogg 40% with Javid at 30% — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) September 29, 2018 And latest from the betting markets Boris loses the favourite slot in the Betfair next CON leader betting pic.twitter.com/p1L8ZS1w5i —…

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The Conservatives must join and win the battle of ideas

The Conservatives must join and win the battle of ideas

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The Thatcherite consensus is dead; the case for choice, freedom and opportunity is not In full, the United States’ Declaration of Independence is not a very good document. It bears the classic mark of the composite motion, being too long overall and unbalanced in its structure: very nearly half of it is a list of twenty-seven grievances. Fortunately, for history and for the revolutionaries, it was drafted by someone who knew not only how to turn a phrase but where…

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