Survation poll of CON Councillors finds Javid leading over Johnson as first choice for TMay’s successor
You can see fuller details from the poll in this Survation video. Mike Smithson Follow @MSmithsonPB Tweet
Boris’s CON leadership betting spurt appears to have run out of steam and others are moving up
It is inevitable with all the political moves relating to the prime minister that there is a lot of betting focus at the moment on who will succeed her both as CON leader and also Prime Minister. Last week as the Betdata.io chart shows the money moved to the former mayor and former foreign secretary who has hired Lynton Crosby to run his leadership campaign, Mr Johnson. That’s evaporated but he’s still favourite though there are four or five others…
The gilded cage. How the DUP are using the new rules of the game to trap the Conservatives
Board games are always a good source of arguments. There seem to be as many views on how to play Monopoly as families. Some place all fines in the centre, to be collected by anyone who lands on Free Parking. Some don’t allow rents to be collected in Jail. Views differ on what is to be done with the properties of bankrupt players. It is important to establish the rules in advance if you want to avoid unseemly rows. Parliamentary…
The confidence vote betting: How the betting markets got it right from the vey start
Chart betdata.io But if punters could see this why not Moggsy’s ERG? Yesterday was a huge political betting day with two million pounds on the Betfair market alone being wagered on the confidence vote on Theresa May. It’s quite useful to look back and see how the markets performed against the actual result and as can be seen the lowest it ever dropped to on the Betfair Exchange for Mrs May was within the first hour at 9.40am when it…
Bad news for TMay from ConHome – nearly two thirds of members surveyed want her out
With voting due to start at Westminster at 6pm there’s bad news for the PM from the ultra Brexiteer site, ConHome. A snap survey finds 63% of those who participated wanting the PM out. The question of whether this is representative of CON members I don’t know but this is very much the impression that CONHome tries to project. Whether this will influence MPs as they prepare to cast their ballot in the confidence vote is hard to say. ComHome…
If punters risking their cash have got this right TMay’s safe
But could the betting markets have it wrong? Betfair and the other bookies were quick off the mark this morning getting markets up following news that tonight we will see a confidence vote amongst Conservative MPs on Theresa May. So far, it seems that political betting public at least thinks that she is going to survive and currently, as I write, (1200) Betfair has the prime minister with an 80% chance of ending the day still in her job. The…
Confirmed – 48 letters have been received by Graham Brady and TMay could be voted out tonight
So the rumours that we were hearing last night were correct. The names have gone in to the chairman of the 1922 committee, Graham Brady, and now we have a confidence vote taking place. Under the rule changes introduced when William Hague was Conservative leader this is the mechanism for ousting someone who has ceased to retain the confidence of the parliamentary Party. If she is defeated then there will have to be a new leadership election at a very…
After another crazy day – the betting movements
Raab back again as CON leader favourite 2018 as TMay exit year jumps from 16% to 36% chance Second referendum steady as a 44% chance All betting data from Betdata.io and based on the Betfair exchange. Mike Smithson Follow @MSmithsonPB Tweet