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Category: CON Leadership

The Conservative party sweepstake

The Conservative party sweepstake

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The last rites have not yet been spoken and already the heirs are gathered around the deathbed and stripping the rings off Theresa May’s fingers. The collective assumption of most Conservative MPs, which may yet be wrong, is that the Conservative role of party leader is shortly to fall vacant. Who might her replacement be? For all the difficulties that the role has, there is no shortage of volunteers. Many Conservative MPs look in the mirror, straighten themselves up, comb…

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If Graham Brady had acted differently in July 2016 TMay might never have become PM

If Graham Brady had acted differently in July 2016 TMay might never have become PM

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And the last three years could have been very different With the pressure ratcheting up in the Tory party against TMay it is perhaps worth recalling how she got the job in the first place in July 2016. Boris was the longstanding favourite but pulled out following Michael Gove’s surprise entry into the race. In the MP balloting TMay came top with Andrea Leadsom second. So Leadsom and Theresa May were two names that were to go to the membership. But…

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The biggest barrier to a Tory Leaver succeeding Mrs May might well be other Tory Leavers

The biggest barrier to a Tory Leaver succeeding Mrs May might well be other Tory Leavers

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Quite the story in today's Sunday Times. Steve Baker is 200/1 with BetFred and 150/1 with Ladbrokes, PaddyPower, and SkyBet to succeed Mrs May as next PM. I've decided to back him. Angels and ministers of grace defend us! https://t.co/TFWXzA7eG6 pic.twitter.com/olHIbFk4TD — TSE (@TSEofPB) May 12, 2019 If Steve Baker stands he could damage the chances of a Leaver winning or he might just win My view is that if the Tory Leavers want to ensure of their own succeeds…

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Now moving up in the CON leader betting the man who was tipped in 2009 to become PM even before he became an MP

Now moving up in the CON leader betting the man who was tipped in 2009 to become PM even before he became an MP

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Telegraph 2009 How he was viewed when he became the Penrith PPC? A recent big mover in the next CON leader betting is Rory Stewart who last week got into the cabinet following the sacking of Gavin Williamson. Over the weekend he announced that he would seek the leadership when TMay finally steps aside and he’s moved to the fifth favourite slot. By any standard he’s got an extraordinary CV doing much more than going to Eton followed by Oxford…

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So all that talk of TMay’s imminent ousting was just piss and wind

So all that talk of TMay’s imminent ousting was just piss and wind

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Sir Graham Brady says the 1922 Committee will ask Theresa May for “clarity” on when she will step down if she cannot get a Brexit deal through parliament. Declines to say whether this means a specific date. — Ben Kentish (@BenKentish) April 24, 2019 Journos should be more sceptical about ERG briefings I don’t know about you but I’m getting a bit tired of all these headlines about Theresa May on the point of being ousted. This started, it will…

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The next generation: the best outside bet for the Tory crown?

The next generation: the best outside bet for the Tory crown?

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To win the Conservative leadership – and quite probably the office of Prime Minister – the successful candidate is assumed to need three things. 1) Sufficient support to get into the final two A third of MPs (105) would guarantee this. In practice around 80-90 is likely to be enough, but going into the final two a long way behind, as Andrea Leadsom did (199 – 84) could prove a problem. Ideally a candidate would be able to reach across…

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Telegraph piece backs 400/1 shot Mark Francois to be next CON leader

Telegraph piece backs 400/1 shot Mark Francois to be next CON leader

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Telegraph piece backs Mark Francois for leader https://t.co/pBOEsYH9Qd — Sam Coates Sky (@SamCoatesSky) April 10, 2019 On Betfair Exchange he is currently 400/1. I’ve wagered £2 at 402/1. In many ways from the extreme Brexiteers position you can see the logic in the position. Francois has kept totally to the faith without wavering but I’m not confident about my bet! Mike Smithson Follow @MSmithsonPB Tweet

Ex-CON leader betting favourite, Javid, drops sharply amidst reports of plots to block him

Ex-CON leader betting favourite, Javid, drops sharply amidst reports of plots to block him

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Betdata.io chart of movement on the Betfair exchange A sign of the Tory Islamophobia crisis? As can be seen from the betting price chart six months ago the Home Secretary. Sajid Javid, was 6the favourite to succeed TMay as CON leader and prime minister Since then he has seen a steady deterioration in his position in the betting and over the last couple of days he’s moved down from an 8% chance to just 5%. Earlier in the week BuzzFeed…

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