I like this market from Smarkets because it allows you to bet on Boris Johnson’s future without getting dragged into the Boris Johnson exit markets where predicting the year of his exit which can be fraught with difficulties. This market is a simple will enough Conservative MPs write a letter to Sir Graham Brady to trigger a vote of no confidence in Boris Johnson before the next general election. My expectation is that the Conservatives will hold North Shropshire on…
“Levelling Up” should not be a meaningless catchphrase. If Levelling Up is to mean anything then surely it should mean that those currently without wealth can work hard, strive, take opportunities and earn money to provide for themselves and their family, and to in the words of the Prime Minister “keep more of their hard-earned money” as seen in the tweet above. Today’s tax rise on that “hard-earned money” via National Insurance is a slap in the face against the…
The more the public see of Raab recently they appear to dislike him more. I suspect what most people will remember about Raab is his role in the ignominious withdrawal from Afghanistan and left many people who helped us at the mercy of the Taliban whilst he went and stayed on holiday. Ladbrokes have a market up on whether Raab wins or doesn’t win ANY seat at the next general election, the 2019 election saw his majority slashed from 23,298…
Because Matt Hancock wasn’t lying when he said he was hard at work we now have a new Health Secretary, I think this is a good appointment even before the self confessed liar Dominic Cummings denounced the appointment (after all Javid wasn’t fired by the PM, he resigned, but as usual facts are inapposite in Cummings world.) My expectation is that being Health Secretary is going be even more of a challenge than in a pre pandemic world with an…
Voting systems matter when it comes to betting Earlier on this week Priti Patel made the astonishing announcement that the 2011 AV referendum result wasn’t just a rejection of AV but all transferable voting systems which is quite the radical interpretation of the referendum result given there are other transferable voting systems apart from AV which were not on the 2011 referendum ballot paper. If Patel and the Tory party wish to be consistent and avoid accusations of hypocrisy then…
The above YouGov polling came out last week but got overshadowed by the budget and I think they should be highlighted. For in all the comparisons listed Johnson trails behind Sunak and in all but two of them Starmer as well. The competence split where the Chancellor has a huge net lead over the PM is very striking. Just 34% regard the latter as competent compared with 52% who don’t. None of the three come out of the trustworthy question…
A former Lib Dem anti-monarchy campaigner tops the list I always like this monthly table from ConsrrvativeHome which seeks to show what party members think of the Cabinet. This is one area where the EdSec Gavin Williamson has really struggled and as can be seen he is down to a net minus rating of 43.6% in the latest survey. These are terrible figures and must cast doubt his political future. In the betting Williamson is favourite to be the next…
Boris Johnson is losing the support of his party. There are enough straws in the wind now to indicate his perceived usefulness is coming to an end, and his popularity is rapidly diminishing in the country. If there’s anything more likely to confirm MPs worries it’s the polling, and the most recent show him behind Keir Starmer as best Prime Minister and his support fracturing in the Red Wall. Many have had concerns about Boris all along, and many more…