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The PB 2013 Prediction Competition Results

The PB 2013 Prediction Competition Results

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How PBers got 2013 right and wrong Compared to the busy 2012, 2013 was a fairly quiet year, and not a great one for betting, as Our Genial Host has pointed out. There were just three UK by-elections, but of more significance was UKIP’s strong showing in the May locals. Abroad, Israel, Italy, Iran, Australia, and Germany were probably the most noteworthy elections. 2014 however looks set to be much livelier, with the Euros in May and the Scottish independence…

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Your chance to win the ideal reference book for political anoraks

Your chance to win the ideal reference book for political anoraks

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This will give you hours of psephological fun! Biteback has generously agreed to give copy of the latest volume by Professors Colin Rallings and Michael Thrasher, called “British Electoral Facts 1832-2012” as a PB competition prize. The book is an amazing treasure trove and my copy sits almost permanently on my desk. All you have to do is guess the CON and Ukip shares in the June Guardian ICM poll. The closest forecast will win. As with all PB competitions…

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The PB Eastleigh Competition: Test your forecasting skills by predicting the outcome

The PB Eastleigh Competition: Test your forecasting skills by predicting the outcome

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Based on last trade Betfair punters now make Tories a 16.7% chance to win #Eastleigh. twitter.com/byelection/sta… — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) February 26, 2013 Predict the winning party & majority in votes This surely has been the biggest and most important by-election for 30 years and it certainly has been the one that has been most polled. We’ve had five published surveys in all and even with them you’d be hard-pressed to choose a winner. So what do you think? Just…

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So what did PBers think will happen in 2013?

So what did PBers think will happen in 2013?

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PB 2013 competition predictions now out (and apols for delay!) (Firstly, apologies to all for the delay in getting these predictions released – I’ve been absolutely flat out at work with year-end and pretty exhausted, so thanks for your patience!) The pundits taking part in PB’s annual crystal ball-gazing exercise, looked at everything from UK leaders at Christmas and the local elections, to key international elections, and predictions for the opinion polls from ICM, with the questions now featuring UKIP…

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Could YOU be the Political Forecaster of 2013?

Could YOU be the Political Forecaster of 2013?

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Test your skill in this year’s PB Prediction Competition “Never underestimate the determination of a quiet man” said Iain Duncan Smith shortly before his defenestration as Conservative leader. But after 2012, what will the quieter year of 2013 hold? How will UKIP perform in the opinion polls? Can the coalition hold together? Will Berlusconi return as Italian PM once more? It’s time to dust off your crystal ball and make your competition predictions for the year ahead. As before the…

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Two months after the election the #WH2012 votes are finally counted and we can announce the PB-William Hill winners

Two months after the election the #WH2012 votes are finally counted and we can announce the PB-William Hill winners

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Congratulations to Cityunslicker who takes the top slot When the William Hill/Politicalbetting White House race prediction competition was announced in September nobody could have envisaged that we would have to wait for two months after the election before getting a final outcome. Entrants were asked simply to predict, down to two decimal points, who the winning candidate would be and the size of the winning margin. On the night it looked as though an Obama popular vote lead of about…

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How well did YOU do predicting what would happen in 2012?

How well did YOU do predicting what would happen in 2012?

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How PBers got 2012 right and wrong The PB 2012 Prediction Competition Results It goes without saying that 2012 was an extraordinarily busy year – not only with the Olympics and the Jubilee, but politically it was pretty crammed too. The US election dominated the year, but there were plenty of elections elsewhere, with France, Russia, Mexico, Japan, the Netherlands, South Korea – and two in Greece. The UK weighed in with the London Mayor contest, the locals, and no…

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Obama’s winning popular vote margin is edging upwards by the day and now stands at 3.45 percent

Obama’s winning popular vote margin is edging upwards by the day and now stands at 3.45 percent

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Three weeks on from election day the Romney total gets closer to the 47% mark. docs.google.com/spreadsheet/cc… twitter.com/MSmithsonPB/st… — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) November 28, 2012 And there are several million votes still to be counted Thanks to PB’s AndyJS for the great work he’s doing tracking the final total in the 2012 White House race. His spreadsheet is being updated several times as day and has become just about the most authoritative source for the outcome. Andy is also doing the…

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