CON 40%(40) LAB 31%(27) LD 16%(18) OTHERS 13% (15) So which pollsters do you believe? After the ComRes 17 point Tory lead reported in the previous thread there are two further surveys – a YouGov one featured above for the Sunday Times and a YouGov/BPIX poll for the Mail on Sunday. The latter has C41-L30-LD17. It’s a while since we’ve had anything from YouGov/BPIX. The one consistent theme from the last four polls has been that the Tories are back…
CON 38%(39) LAB 30%(29) LD 20%(18) OTHERS % 11(14) This really is hung parliament territory As predicted in the previous thread this evening Populus poll for the Times has some good news for Brown Central following the party’s relatively good week – even though it is all well within the margin of error This is the closest the parties have been with the firm for exactly a year. In December 2008 the pollster reported a 4 point margin. There’s little…
Why has there been so little movement on the spreads? It’s been an extraordinary couple of weeks with two polls suggesting that we are in hung parliament territory and, perhaps, a change in the media narrative. What seemed a certain Tory majority in mid-November is looking just a touch different. Above is the PB Index which is calculated by taking the average of mid-points on the main seats markets and then extrapolating that into a General Election outcome. The extraordinary…
Could their rise be disguising the scale of the swing? The big trend from almost all the polls in recent weeks week has been the increase in the share for “others” – UKIP, the Greens, the BNP and SNP/PC in Scotland and Wales. In some surveys they are now more than double the 8.2% that they got between them at the 2005 general election A question for anybody wanting to bet on and/or predict the outcome is whether these historically…
SportingIndex CON 352-357 LAB 208-213 LD 50-53 MORI moves the Labour spread by just one seat The immediate reaction of the spread betting firms to the sensational MORI poll suggesting a hung parliament was to suspend trading while they took stock of the situation. We’ll have to wait until later in the day for the latest extrabet spreads but SportingIndex did produce revised figures yesterday afternoon and put Labour up by just one seat. Before the poll came out Brown’s…
SportingIndex Brown’s party move up six notches in ten days In the immediate aftermath of the Tory conference a week and a half ago the commons seat spreads from SportingIndex moved to their lowest ever level of 197 – 202 seats. Following there polls in the past week having Labour in the 28 – 30% range there has been something of a re-evaluation and the numbers have moved upwards. The other main spread market that makes intermittent appearances, Extrabet, has…
But could “events” put a smile back on their faces? In a radio interview being reported today, the boss of pollster, ComRes, Andrew Hawkins is suggesting that the election is in the bag the for the Tories. He said: “If Gordon Brown stays in post until the General Election then despite the protest that this will elicit from Tories then yes it is a done deal… “On the analysis we’ve done going back over theg last 4 years worth of…
SportingIndex Punters seem to be following the tracker Before Gordon Brown’s conference speech began to affect YouGov’s daily tracker ratings the SportingIndex spead market on the number of seats the parties will win at the next election had moved to what I think was a record low of 198 – 203 seats. Immediately after the the first poll to take the speech into account had Labour just seven points behind the market moved back up again a couple of notches….