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Category: Commons seat predictions

What happened when I switched the CON and LAB GE2019 vote shares on the Electoral Calculus seat predictor

What happened when I switched the CON and LAB GE2019 vote shares on the Electoral Calculus seat predictor

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Even with a lead of 11.7% Starmer’s party falls short of a majority For some time I’ve been planning a piece on how difficult it is going to be for LAB to win a majority at the next election and overnight I got down to it. I started by using the Electoral Calculus seat predictor to try to get a broad picture of the sort of poll leads that Labour requires if it is to win an overall majority next…

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The pact that will make the Commons seat predictors a lot less useful next time

The pact that will make the Commons seat predictors a lot less useful next time

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Heidi’s pro-Remain electoral deal could impact on 70+ seats A story that’s got hidden in all the Brexit news was this on SkyNews about Heidi Allen, the South Cambridgeshire ex-CON MP who this week joined the LDs. She told the news channel that Remain-backing parties, the LDs, GRN and PC, have come to an agreement whereby only one of them will compete in 70+ key seats in England and Wales. Also agreed is that these parties will not put up…

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Combination therapy. An occasional reminder that using seat predictors on current polling is stupid

Combination therapy. An occasional reminder that using seat predictors on current polling is stupid

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You see it happen regularly, on here and on twitter. A new opinion poll comes out, showing dramatic news. Immediately, we decamp to Electoral Calculus and Flavible, to discover that such a poll, if replicated at a general election, would produce a hung Parliament with Plaid Cymru the largest party, able to form a coalition with the Greens and Lady Sylvia Hermon. The oracles have spoken. “Cor blimey”, we expostulate. Why do we do it? At a time when the…

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Going back to your constituencies. Alastair Meeks on not taking seat predictors too seriously in times of change

Going back to your constituencies. Alastair Meeks on not taking seat predictors too seriously in times of change

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Obviously, you should not treat opinion polls very seriously at all, especially when no general election is on hand. Respondents are being asked an artificial question (there is no general election tomorrow) with no real-world consequences hanging on their answer.  You might be getting a general expression of enthusiasm for a particular credo, a message to the voter’s normal choice or simply a casual choice made without much thought, and that’s before you get into the methodological adjustments that the pollsters…

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Marginal improvements. Looking at the reliability of seat predictions from polls

Marginal improvements. Looking at the reliability of seat predictions from polls

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Last week, Mike Smithson noted the Conservatives seem to have an in-built advantage in the electoral system over Labour – if they got an equal number of votes, the Conservatives could expect about 15 seats more than Labour even if Labour had a 0.5% lead in the polls, if Electoral Calculus is to be believed. That begs the question whether seats are likely to move consistently at the next election in the way that seat predictors assume. Let’s have a…

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Latest Electoral Calculus projection has CON 15 seats ahead even on a 0.5% lower average vote share

Latest Electoral Calculus projection has CON 15 seats ahead even on a 0.5% lower average vote share

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The latest seat prediction from Electoral Calculus another reminder to LAB that the system now works in favour of the Tories. CON average vote share 0.5% behind but with clear lead on seatshttps://t.co/VmVdusO6wz pic.twitter.com/QsV9I7FkL0 — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) February 1, 2018 This is, of course, on the current old boundaries I have made this point before but the latest projection from Martin Baxter’s Electoral Calculus is an excellent example of how under current boundaries the system works in favour of…

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Seat projection from today’s ICM poll has CON ahead on MPs even though behind on votes

Seat projection from today’s ICM poll has CON ahead on MPs even though behind on votes

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When’s the Corbyn Clique going to work out that the system now works against LAB? The latest ICM Guardian poll out and the figures – C40/LB41/LD7 – are included above in the seat projection from Martin Baxter’s Electoral Calculus. As can be seen that although the Conservatives are one point behind on votes this, according to the projection, will put them one ahead in terms of seats. This reflects a big trend that first was noticed at GE2015 when the…

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In late April the Tory data chief, Jim Messina, told senior Tories that his modelling pointed to a CON majority of 290

In late April the Tory data chief, Jim Messina, told senior Tories that his modelling pointed to a CON majority of 290

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Put this on your “Christmas” list I’m just back in the UK after my holiday on the West Coast of the US visiting my son, Robert, and his family who have moved to LA from London in July. Part of my holiday reading was Betting The House: The Inside Story of the 2017 Election by Tim Ross and Tom McTague which was published last month. It is an absorbing read giving a detailed account of GE2017 based on conversations with…

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