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Category: Coalition

Harry Hayfield’s Local By-Election Preview: August 28th 2014

Harry Hayfield’s Local By-Election Preview: August 28th 2014

Yes, we all know that the media is focusing on Clacton this evening but let us not forget that Clacton is not the only show in town! North Jesmond on Newcastle upon Tyne (Lib Dem Defence) Result of last election to council (2014): Labour 52, Liberal Democrats 24, Independents 2 (Labour majority of 26) Result of ward at last election (2011): Liberal Democrats 870 (37%), Labour 770 (33%), Conservatives 419 (18%), Greens 273 (12%0 Candidates duly nominated: Duncan Crute (Con),…

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The real worry for the Tories is if Carswell is able to take much of his organisation with him

The real worry for the Tories is if Carswell is able to take much of his organisation with him

Douglas Carswell, red hot favourite to win his seat, Clacton, for UKIP. See PaddyPower http://t.co/0KpwlJgy4T pic.twitter.com/V01q41DqqX — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) August 28, 2014 And will his defection encourage others? Back in 2005 Douglas Carswell was one of a select group of Tories who won seats from LAB. He took Harwich. Then, five years later in the new seat of Clacton, he held on thanks to a swing from LAB of 9.7%, The national swing was 5% which is a good indication…

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CON MP, Douglas Carswell, defects to UKIP AND is resigning to fight by-election

CON MP, Douglas Carswell, defects to UKIP AND is resigning to fight by-election

MP for Clacton Douglas Carswell has announced he is defecting from the Conservatives to #Ukip — Sky News Newsdesk (@SkyNewsBreak) August 28, 2014 The results from @DouglasCarswell Clacton at GE2010. Can he hold that for UKIP pic.twitter.com/5MVJA1CnbS — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) August 28, 2014 At GE2010 Carswell enjoyed a swing of LAB to CON of 9.7% – which was one of the highest in UK. Suggests a big personal vote. — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) August 28, 2014 CLACTON MP CARSWELL…

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ICM has it as a decisive win for Salmond – but will his performance swing votes?

ICM has it as a decisive win for Salmond – but will his performance swing votes?

The debate ends with the Betfair betting market unmoved. YES 13.5% chance. Now we wait for the ICM debate poll pic.twitter.com/xJiVsE52Cs — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) August 25, 2014 Guardian ICM poll – Salmond – 71% Darling – 29% Sample of 500+ — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) August 25, 2014 On the Betfair exchange the YES price edged up a notch from a 13.5% chance to a 13.8% one — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) August 25, 2014 My verdict was that Darling was less…

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Ladbrokes make Salmond the favourite to “win” tonight’s debate

Ladbrokes make Salmond the favourite to “win” tonight’s debate

Debate betting prices from Ladbrokes http://t.co/OKFhPuoEOc for tonight's Salmond-Darling BBC TV debate pic.twitter.com/SOHP52ts3N — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) August 25, 2014 Surely the SNP leader will be better prepared than last time? Tonight’s the big one in the the IndyRef campaign. With postal packs due to go out by the end of the week large numbers of Scottish voters could have cast their votes a week today. The election itself is not until September 18th but the nature of the increasingly…

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The Populus “Mondays good for LAB, Fridays for CON” sequence finally comes to an end

The Populus “Mondays good for LAB, Fridays for CON” sequence finally comes to an end

It had to happen at some stage, I suppose, but today’s Populus online LAB lead of 6% brings to an end an extraordinary polling sequence – that those polls published on Mondays tended to show movement towards Labour while those coming out on Fridays moved back towards the Tories. Quite why this is hard to say. Last month Anthony Wells at UKPR ran the numbers through his computer and found that since this polling series was established in July 2013…

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David Herdson wonders how much we can trust the referendum polls

David Herdson wonders how much we can trust the referendum polls

From Prof John Curtice's site – WhatScotsThink most recent #indyref poll of polls pic.twitter.com/BVdRwjNQcu — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) August 22, 2014 How effective are the pollsters with such a one-off event? Knowledge, information and judgement: the past, present and future of effective prediction.  The problem, as far as the Scottish referendum is concerned, is that all three are badly affected by the paucity of precedent.  There have been referendums before, both in Britain and elsewhere, but all have their drawbacks…

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If the swing-back theorists are right the proportion of 2010 LD who’ve switched to LAB will decline

If the swing-back theorists are right the proportion of 2010 LD who’ve switched to LAB will decline

There’s absolutely no sign of that happening yet The chart shows the monthly average proportion of all 2010 LDs in the twice-weekly Populus polls since the series started in July 2013. So far, as the chart shows, this group of switchers (“Labour’s electoral clutch” as they’ve been described) are remaining solid and are propping up the red team’s poll ratings. In yesterday’s Ashcroft polling of the marginals the level of switching was higher than in national polls and, interestingly, it…

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