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Friday's @thetimes #Clacton by-election special edition: The history man: Ukip win gives party first MP pic.twitter.com/tJJNRi8t9V — David Jack (@DJack_Journo) October 10, 2014 Douglas Carswell tells Sky News that "Clacton result shows a profound change in British politics" #skybyelection https://t.co/vOtryZQESt — Sky News (@SkyNews) October 10, 2014 But the real sensation, as Carswell said, was UKIP getting so close in Heywood & Middleton Here's the full #HeywoodAndMiddleton result where Labour hold the seat on a 36% turnout #bbctw pic.twitter.com/KIN27VM1Ym —…

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  It seems likely that we are on the edge of a new stage in UKIP’s existence, with Douglas Carswell looking likely to become the party’s second MP (Bob Spink’s legacy as the answer to that political trivia question is safe) and the first to be elected as a UKIP candidate. The polling is so overwhelming that Simon Hughes is humourously cheering on the Tories in the hopes of holding onto his record for the largest swing in UK political…

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It’s still a possibility – by accident or design Lame ducks.  Britain’s not supposed to have them given that there are no term limits for ministers and for that matter, no formal terms at all as far as governments are concerned: they just carry on until they resign or are ousted.  Even so, final sessions of a parliament has rarely been particularly fruitful times, partly because the government’s main priorities will have already been dealt with but mainly because the…

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My latest article Are manufactured public spats in both coalition partners' interest? http://t.co/aLo8D5uXjc pic.twitter.com/WBbsRl9QdC — The Screaming Eagles (@TSEofPB) October 3, 2014 Surely the Lib Dems can’t go on like this polling in the single digits? I’ve always been optimistic on the Lib Dems doing well in 2015, and the Ashcroft marginals polling in the past shows them doing better in the seats they hold than the national polling would suggest. My expectation for 2014 was if we started seeing the…

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The fundamentals remain: LAB’s LD firewall hasn’t been touched Undoubtedly a CON lead with another pollster, YouGov, is a big moment and given it comes after Cameron’s well received conference speech will give cheer to the blues. This morning’s Sun poll with the Tories 1% ahead means that within the past months Ashcroft, ICM, Ipsos-MORI and now YouGov have all had blue leads at one point or another. There’s little doubt that Cameron’s speech has been well received and that…

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Llandaff North on Cardiff (Labour Defence) Result: Labour 898 (50% -2%), Llandaff North Independents 419 (23% -1%), UKIP 204 (11%), Conservatives 136 (8% +5%), Liberal Democrats 134 (7% -9%) Labour HOLD with a majority of 479 (27%) on a swing of 0.5% from Labour to Llandaff North Independents Windermere on Cumbria (Liberal Democrat Defence) Result: Liberal Democrats 1,061 (52% -10%), Conservatives 810 (39% +20%), Independent 123 (6%), Green 61 (3%) Liberal Democrat HOLD with a majority of 251 (12%) on…

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For the yellows a record low – but no panic September might have been one of the most dramatic months in British politics since the last general election, with the near-dissolution of the three-centuries old Anglo-Scottish Union but you wouldn’t know it from the polls.  That the Yes and No camps crossed party lines and brought opponents together might have had something to do with it; more likely, it’s that the majority of the UK electorate, in England, have moved…

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