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Oban North and Lorn on Argyll and Bute (Ind Defence) Result of last election to council (2012): Independents 15, Scottish National Party 13, Conservatives 4, Liberal Democrats 4 (No Overall Control, Independents short by 3) Result of last election to ward (2014): Scottish National Party 595 (25%), Independent 548 (23%), Labour 526 (22%), Conservatives 445 (18%), Independent 301 (12%). Candidates duly nominated: Kieron Green (Lab), Stephanie Irvine (Ind), Iain Maclean (SNP), Andrew Vennard (Con) The SNP will be hoping that…

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UKIP price moves up sharply on the Betfair exchange Rochester market. Now an 80% chance pic.twitter.com/hzXnTzgtFx — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) October 23, 2014 Next we’ll see polls with the candidates named Amazing to recall that two and a half weeks ago the Tories had a brief spell as favourite on the Rochester betting markets. Then came the first poll from Survation which had a 9% UKIP lead and now we have the ComRes 13% one. It’s a brave punter who…

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Voting intention with changes in this week's ANP: pic.twitter.com/TfFoYgkYzw — Lord Ashcroft (@LordAshcroft) October 20, 2014 Earlier the Populus had Lab 36 (+1), Con 34 (+1), LD 9 (-1), UKIP 13 (-1) GRN 5 (+1) This 3% jump in a single week is a remarkable move by the Greens who now seem to be taking support from across the board but most particularly LAB and the LDs which could conceivably help the Tories in the battlegrounds. Like all moves that…

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Latest GE15 forecast from Oxford's @StephenDFisher has CON winning most votes with LAB most seats pic.twitter.com/B8MJIVMc8W — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) October 18, 2014 CON with 2.7% more votes in the forecast get 7 fewer seats We’ve been here before and we’ll be here many times in the next six months – the way that on national vote shares at least the “system” seems to favour LAB so much. The latest from Oxford’s Stephen Fisher is in the panel above which…

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Harper Green on Bolton (Lab Defence) Result: Labour 1,176 (51% -1%), UKIP 777 (33% +15%), Conservative 282 (12% -11%), Greens 38 (2% -2%), Liberal Democrats 28 (1% -3%), Independent 19 (1%) Labour HOLD with a majority of 399 (18%) on a swing of 8% from Labour to UKIP Towyn on Conwy (Con Defence) Result: Conservative 143 (25%), Independent (Smith) 116 (20%), Independent (Johnson) 104 (18%), Labour 98 (17%), Independent (Griffiths) 69 (12%), Independent (Corry) 43 (8%) Conservative HOLD with a…

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Harper Green on Bolton (Lab Defence) Result of last election to council (2014): Labour 40, Conservatives 15, Liberal Democrats 3, United Kingdom Independence Party 2 (Labour majority of 20) Result of ward at last election (2013): Labour 744 (52%), Conservative 325 (23%), UKIP 252 (18%), Greens 60 (4%), Liberal Democrats 53 (4%) Candidates duly nominated: Jeff Armstrong (UKIP), Rebekah Fairhurst (Lib Dem), Susan Haworth (Lab), Joseph Holt (Ind), James Tomkinson (Green), Robert Tyler (Con) If a week is a long…

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@LordAshcroft latest batch of marginal polling finds 5% swing in CON held seats with majoritiies 3% – 4.8% — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) October 16, 2014 Seat-by-seat results in my latest poll – swings range from 2% (Pudsey, Gloucester) to 8% (Brentford & Isleworth): pic.twitter.com/xEJCDlZdKj — Lord Ashcroft (@LordAshcroft) October 16, 2014 I love this Tweet from Lord A No doubt Conservative Party internal polling will show a Conservative overall majority #comfortpolling — Lord Ashcroft (@LordAshcroft) October 16, 2014 Aggregate shares…

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