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Seat-by-seat voting intention in my latest marginals poll: pic.twitter.com/Vyz4UtINvP — Lord Ashcroft (@LordAshcroft) November 5, 2014 @LordAshcroft marginals: LAB would GAIN Bury N Cannock C Chester Croydon C Erewash Keighley Northampton N Keighley Wirral W Worcester — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) November 5, 2014 @LordAshcroft marginals: CON would hold Blackpool N Kingswood Loughborough — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) November 5, 2014 @LordAshcroft marginals finds UKIP at 20% in key CON-LAB battles CON 33 LAB 36 LD 6 UKIP 20 GRN 4 This is CON-LAB swing of 4.5% — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) November 5, 2014

With both LAB & CON continuing to be weak a majority seems remote On one level the rise of UKIP and to a lesser extent the Greens changes very little when trying to work out the coming election. The main fights are in LAB-CON battlegrounds where, conventionally, all that matters is the gap between the two main parties. You just leave aside others and focus on the blue and red shares. If CON has margin similar or larger than the…

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The trend in the weekly @LordAshcroft phone polls. Not good for LAB pic.twitter.com/Qat6ZaWaDE — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) November 3, 2014 This evening's CON 30% share & LAB 29% are lower than Major did for Tories in 1997 & Brown for LAB at GE2010 — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) November 3, 2014 The scale of the UKIP/GRN/SNP surges is breathtaking That LAB falls to a record low of 29% is remarkable in itself but what is startling is that in the same…

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The above monthly averages are based on analysis of data from every single Populus online poll since the firm started its twice weekly series in July 2013 and shows the proportion, before the don’t knows are netted off, of 2010 LDs now saying they will vote Labour. Because of the way Populus presents its data this is a much easier number gathering exercise than it would be with YouGov which only shows the netted off numbers in its datasets. As…

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Introducing the new swing voters: Purple Labourites and Rainbow Liberals For a long time it looked as if two factors were going to deliver the keys to Downing Street to Ed Miliband. The first was that in the first six months of the parliament, around two-fifths of the Lib Dems’ 2010 vote switched to Labour and appeared firmly embedded there. The second was that a little later, starting in 2012, an increasing share of the Conservatives’ 2010 vote was peeling…

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Canvey Island East on Castle Point (Canvey Island Independent Defence) Result: Independent 389 (39% +23%), Canvey Island Independent 323 (32% -16%), Conservative 208 (21% -2%), Labour 76 (8% -5%) Independent GAIN from Canvey Island Independent with a majority of 66 (7%) on a swing of 20% from Canvey Island Independent to Independent Sandsfield East on Neath and Port Talbot (Lab Defence) Result: Labour 641 (61% +8%), UKIP 361 (34%), Conservative 47 (4%) Labour HOLD with a majority of 280 (27%)…

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The local NHS rather than immigration the top issue for Rochester voters ahead of by-election. See Survation chart pic.twitter.com/lwBuP0ntNe — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) October 31, 2014 Some good news for UKIP after its PCC by-election flop There’s a new voting intention poll by Survation for the Unite union of Rochester & Strood. The latest shares (with change in brackets since firm’s last poll on 5 October for Mail on Sunday): CON 33% (+2), LAB 16% (-9), LD 1% (-2), UKIP…

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